Skeptical Science New Research for Week #36 2024
Posted on 5 September 2024 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Diurnal Temperature Range Trends Differ Below and Above the Melting Point, Pithan & Schatt, Geophysical Research Letters:
The globally averaged diurnal temperature range (DTR) has shrunk since the mid-20th century, and climate models project further shrinking. Observations indicate a slowdown or reversal of this trend in recent decades. Here, we show that DTR has a minimum for average temperatures close to 0°C. Observed DTR shrinks strongly at colder temperature, where warming shifts the average temperature toward the DTR minimum, and expands at warmer temperature, where warming shifts the average temperature away from the DTR minimum. Most, but not all climate models reproduce the minimum DTR close to average temperatures of 0°C and a stronger DTR shrinking at colder temperature. In models that reproduce the DTR minimum, DTR shrinking slows down significantly in recent decades. Models project that the global-mean DTR will shrink over the 21st century, and models with a DTR minimum close to 0°C project slower shrinking than other models.
Rock glaciers across the United States predominantly accelerate coincident with rise in air temperatures, Kääb & Røste, Nature Communications
Despite their extensive global presence and the importance of variations in their speed as an essential climate variable, only about a dozen global time series document long-term changes in the velocity of rock glaciers – large tongue-shaped flows of frozen mountain debris. By analysing historical aerial photographs, we reconstruct here 16 new time series, a type of data that has not previously existed for the North American continent. We observe substantial accelerations, as much as 2–3 fold, in the surface displacement rates of rock glaciers across the mountains of the western contiguous United States over the past six to seven decades, most consistent with strongly increasing air temperatures in that region. Variations between individual time series suggest that different local and internal conditions of the frozen debris bodies modulate this overall climate response. Our observations indicate fundamental long-term environmental changes associated with frozen ground in the study region.
Impacts of AMOC Collapse on Monsoon Rainfall: A Multi-Model Comparison, Ben-Yami et al., Earth’s Future:
A collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) would have substantial impacts on global precipitation patterns, especially in the vulnerable tropical monsoon regions. We assess these impacts in experiments that apply the same freshwater hosing to four state-of-the-art climate models with bistable AMOC. As opposed to previous results, we find that the spatial and seasonal patterns of precipitation change are remarkably consistent across models. We focus on the South American Monsoon (SAM), the West African Monsoon (WAM), the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM). Models consistently suggest substantial disruptions for WAM, ISM, and EASM with shorter wet and longer dry seasons (−29.07{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71}, −18.76{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71}, and −3.78{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71} ensemble mean annual rainfall change, respectively). Models also agree on changes for the SAM, suggesting rainfall increases overall, in contrast to previous studies. These are more pronounced in the southern Amazon (+43.79{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71}), accompanied by decreasing dry-season length. Consistently across models, our results suggest a robust and major rearranging of all tropical monsoon systems in response to an AMOC collapse.
The feasibility of reaching gigatonne scale CO2 storage by mid-century, Zhang et al., Nature Communications:
The Sixth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects subsurface carbon storage at rates of 1 – 30 GtCO2 yr−1 by 2050. These projections, however, overlook potential geological, geographical, and techno-economic limitations to growth. We evaluate the feasibility of scaling up CO2 storage using a geographically resolved growth model that considers constraints from both geology and scale-up rate. Our results suggest a maximum global storage rate of 16 GtCO2 yr−1 by 2050, but this is contingent on the United States contributing 60{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71} of the total. These values contrast with projections in the Sixth Assessment Report that vastly overestimate the feasibility of deployment in China, Indonesia, and South Korea. A feasible benchmark for global CO2 storage projections, and consistent with current government technology roadmaps, suggests a global storage rate of 5-6 GtCO2 yr−1, with the United States contributing around 1 GtCO2 yr−1.
Small reduction in land surface albedo due to solar panel expansion worldwide, Wei et al., Communications Earth & Environment:
Photovoltaic (PV) panel deployment for decarbonization may reduce local terrestrial albedo, triggering a positive radiative forcing that counteracts the desired negative radiative forcing from carbon emission reductions. Yet, this potential adverse impact remains uncertain due to limited observations at PV sites. Herein we employ a robust linear parameterization method to quantify PV-induced albedo changes based on satellite data globally. We find an overall albedo decrease of −1.28 (−1.80, −0.90) × 10−2 (median and interquartile range), specific for land-cover types and climate regimes. However, the extent of albedo reduction is markedly lower than simplistic assumed values in simulating climate feedback for solar farming in Earth system models. Moreover, the albedo-induced positive radiative forcing can be offset by negative radiative forcing from clean solar generation in most PV farms within one year. Our findings underscore PV’s potential in mitigating global warming and stress the need for more accurate model estimations.
From this week’s government and NGO section:
Quarterly EV Cost Savings Report, Coltura
Drivers in all 50 states are experiencing significant fuel savings from driving an electric vehicle. In Q2 2024, based on US average gasoline prices, utility rates, and fuel efficiency, an American driver saves 8.1 cents per mile on fuel by driving an EV instead of a gas car, up from 7.6 cents at the end of 2023. The average U.S. EV driver saved $100 a month on fuel and maintenance in the second quarter. A gasoline Superuser (a person in the top 10{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71} of US gasoline consumption) who uses more than 100 gallons a month would save on average $400 on fuel and maintenance with an EV. The analysis also breaks this down by state and by vehicle type. Per mile, the greatest savings are from drivers in Washington state — because of its high gas prices and low electricity prices — where drivers can save 13.1 cents per mile on fuel, which translates to $120 a month on average. Electricity is cheaper than gasoline in all 50 states and DC, for all vehicle types. Even in a state with relatively low gas costs and high electricity rates, such as Massachusetts, fuel savings for switching to an EV are 4.7 cents per mile, $44 per month on average.
Wargaming Climate Change A Structure for Incorporating Physical and Social Effects into Strategic Military Planning, Tingstad et al, RAND
The authors summarize insights about approaches for understanding the implications of climate change in a national security context through the use of analytic gaming. These reflections are based on experience that has been developed while gaming climate change for the U.S. Department of Defense. There are multiple sources of climate information and data that are available to the defense gaming community, but using these sources effectively requires knowledge of how to obtain them and their respective benefits and limitations. Wargames focusing on or including climate change can serve purposes from concept development to education to engagement. Climate information and data can be used to shape assumptions, model starting conditions, create crisis narratives, move scene-setters, and make final adjudications.
99 articles in 47 journals by 650 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Changing Role of Horizontal Moisture Advection in the Lower Troposphere Under Extreme Arctic Amplification, Hori et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl109299
Enhanced generation of internal tides under global warming, Yang et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-52073-3
Midlatitude mesoscale thermal Air-sea interaction enhanced by greenhouse warming, Zhang et al., Open Access pdf 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3932615/v1
Walker circulation strengthening driven by sea surface temperature changes outside the tropics, Toda et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-024-01510-5
Observations of climate change, effects
Anthropogenic Influence Has Increased the Nighttime Heat Stress Risks in Eastern China, He & Chen, Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2023ef004406
Diurnal Temperature Range Trends Differ Below and Above the Melting Point, Pithan & Schatt, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl109751
Enhanced interaction between ENSO and the South Atlantic subtropical dipole over the past four decades, Yu et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8576
Increasing heat waves frequencies over India during post-El Niño spring and early summer seasons, Satyanarayana et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104561
Rock glaciers across the United States predominantly accelerate coincident with rise in air temperatures, Kääb & Røste, Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-52093-z
Understanding Observed Precipitation Change and the New Climate Normal from the Perspective of Daily Weather Types in the Southeast United States, Qian et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0367.1
Weakening of La Niña Impact on Negative Indian Ocean Dipole Under Global Warming, Zu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2024gl110039
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
Coordinated Geostationary, Multispectral Satellite Observations Are Critical for Climate and Air Quality Progress, Millet et al., AGU Advances Open Access 10.1029/2024av001322
Toward long-term monitoring of regional permafrost thaw with satellite interferometric synthetic aperture radar, Sadeghi Chorsi et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-18-3723-2024
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
A Predicted Pause in the Rapid Warming of the Northwest Atlantic Shelf in the Coming Decade, Koul et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl110946
Climate-Driven Projections of Future Global Wetlands Extent, Hardouin et al., Earth’s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2024ef004553
Impacts of AMOC Collapse on Monsoon Rainfall: A Multi-Model Comparison, Ben?Yami et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2023ef003959
Impacts of Greenland Ice Sheet on Blocking in Idealized Simulations, Ding et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0229.1
Ocean Complexity Shapes Sea Surface Temperature Variability in a CESM2 Coupled Model Hierarchy, Larson et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0621.1
Relative contribution of dynamic and thermodynamic components on Southeast Asia future precipitation changes from different multi-GCM ensemble members, NGAI et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.08.007
Robust future projections of global spatial distribution of major tropical cyclones and sea level pressure gradients, Murakami et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01644-9
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024
Autocorrelation—A Simple Diagnostic for Tropical Precipitation Variability in Global Kilometer-Scale Climate Models, Spät et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl108856
Evaluation of atmospheric rivers in reanalyses and climate models in a new metrics framework, Dong et al., Open Access 10.5194/gmd-2024-142
MJO Diversity in CMIP6 Models, Back et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0656.1
On the Realism of Tropical Cyclone Intensification in Global Storm-Resolving Climate Models, Baker et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2024gl109841
Cryosphere & climate change
Reconciling Roles of External Forcing and Internal Variability in Arctic Sea Ice Change on Different Time Scales, Shen et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0280.1
Toward long-term monitoring of regional permafrost thaw with satellite interferometric synthetic aperture radar, Sadeghi Chorsi et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-18-3723-2024
Sea level & climate change
Simulated Impact of Time-Varying River Runoff and Greenland Freshwater Discharge on Sea Level Variability in the Beaufort Gyre Over 2005–2018, Tajouri et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2024jc021237
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
Eocene maar sediments record warming of up to 3.5 °C during a hyperthermal event 47.2 million years ago, Schmitt et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01628-9
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
Antarctic benthic ecological change, Matias et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.marenvres.2019.104757
Distinct latitudinal patterns of shifting spring phenology across the Appalachian Trail Corridor, Tourville et al., Ecology Open Access 10.1002/ecy.4403
Effects of preseason climate change on spring and summer phenological shifts in Inner Mongolian grasslands, Nie et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution 10.3389/fevo.2024.1423063
Environmental Influence on the Functional Ecological Structure of Benthic Macrofaunal Communities of the Northwest Iberian Coast, Alves et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106712
Global increase in the optimal temperature for the productivity of terrestrial ecosystems, Fang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01636-9
Habitat quality or quantity? Niche marginality across 21 plants and animals suggests differential responses between highland and lowland species to past climatic changes, Grubb, Ptilochronology Open Access 10.1093/oso/9780199295500.003.0006
Interactive impact of residual pyrethroid compounds used in the Chilean salmon farming industry and coastal acidification conditions on the feeding performance of farmed mussels in northern Patagonia, Conejeros et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106727
Microhabitat acclimatization alters sea anemone–algal symbiosis and thermal tolerance across the intertidal zone, Ruggeri et al., Ecology Open Access pdf 10.1002/ecy.4388
Temperature and land use change are associated with Rana temporaria reproductive success and phenology, Oliver & Harrison Harrison, PeerJ Open Access 10.7717/peerj.17901
The impact of elevation and prediction of climate change on an ultra high-elevation ectotherm, Gao et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.70186
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
Anthropogenic carbon storage and its decadal changes in the Atlantic between 1990–2020, Steinfeldt et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-21-3839-2024
Assimilating Morning, Evening, and Nighttime Greenhouse Gas Observations in Atmospheric Inversions, Monteiro et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2024jd040998
Global ocean carbon uptake enhanced by rainfall, Parc et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-024-01517-y
Influence of wind strength and direction on diffusive methane fluxes and atmospheric methane concentrations above the North Sea, Bussmann et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-21-3819-2024
Large Porewater-Derived Carbon Outwelling Across Mangrove Seascapes Revealed by Radium Isotopes, Cabral et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access pdf 10.1029/2024jc021319
Methane release from tidal wetlands, Chen et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17491
Nitrogen availability and summer drought, but not N:P imbalance, drive carbon use efficiency of a Mediterranean tree-grass ecosystem, Nair et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17486
Radiocarbon Isotopic Disequilibrium Shows Little Incorporation of New Carbon in Mineral Soils of a Boreal Forest Ecosystem, Tangarife?Escobar et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2024jg008191
Reducing the uncertainty in estimating soil microbial-derived carbon storage, Hu et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.2401916121
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
Technical Note: Flagging inconsistencies in flux tower data, Jung et al., Open Access 10.5194/bg-2023-110
Thermokarst landscape exhibits large nitrous oxide emissions in Alaska’s coastal polygonal tundra, Hashemi et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01583-5
Tropical peat composition may provide a negative feedback on fire occurrence and severity, Crawford et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-50916-7
Wetland hydrological dynamics and methane emissions, Cui et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01635-w
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
Entropy-Driven Carbon Dioxide Capture: The Role of High Salinity and Hydrophobic Monoethanolamine, Petrovi? et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research Open Access 10.1002/aesr.202400204
Erosion of cultivated kelp facilitates dissolved organic carbon release, Zhong et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106728
Synergies of storing hydrogen at the crest of CO2${rm CO}&{2}$ or other gas storage, Zhang et al., Energies Open Access pdf 10.3390/en13153829
The feasibility of reaching gigatonne scale CO2 storage by mid-century, Zhang et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-51226-8
Decarbonization
A novel design for conversion and storage of solar thermal energy into electrical energy using a solar thermoelectric device-coupled supercapacitor, Ma et al., Carbon Neutralization Open Access 10.1002/cnl2.166
Electric light-duty vehicles have decarbonization potential but may not reduce other environmental problems, Chen et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01608-z
Hidden effects and externalities of electric vehicles, Haghani et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114335
Pathway decisions for reuse and recycling of retired lithium-ion batteries considering economic and environmental functions, Ma et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-52030-0
Small reduction in land surface albedo due to solar panel expansion worldwide, Wei et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01619-w
Geoengineering climate
Africa’s Climate Response to Marine Cloud Brightening Strategies Is Highly Sensitive to Deployment Region, Odoulami et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2024jd041070
Black carbon
The politics of knowledge in black carbon mitigation: Policy entrepreneurship of Finnish actors and the Climate and Clean Air Coalition (R2), Aalto & Claydon, Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103881
Aerosols
On the sensitivity of aerosol–cloud interactions to changes in sea surface temperature in radiative–convective equilibrium, Lorian & Dagan Dagan Dagan, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-24-9323-2024
Climate change communications & cognition
For cash, the planet, or for both: Evaluating an informational intervention for energy consumption reduction, Lange et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114314
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Bivalves under extreme weather events: A comparative study of five economically important species in the South China Sea during marine heatwaves, Masanja et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106716
Climate change will exacerbate land conflict between agriculture and timber production, Bousfield et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-024-02113-z
Climate risk and green total factor productivity in agriculture: The moderating role of climate policy uncertainty, Wang et al., Risk Analysis Open Access pdf 10.1111/risa.17639
Global Assessment of Compound Climate Extremes and Exposures of Population, Agriculture, and Forest Lands Under Two Climate Scenarios, Schillerberg & Tian, Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004845
Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Thai and Japanese Restaurants for Reduction Management Strategies, Mungkung et al., Weather, Climate, and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-23-0095.1
Large grazers suppress a foundational plant and reduce soil carbon concentration in eastern US saltmarshes, Sharp et al., Journal of Ecology Open Access pdf 10.1111/1365-2745.14407
Losses and destabilization of soil organic carbon stocks in coastal wetlands converted into aquaculture ponds, Lin et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17480
Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024
Predicting fish spawning phenology for adaptive management: integrating thermal drivers and fishery constraints., Moltó et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106713
XENTURION is a population-level multidimensional resource of xenografts and tumoroids from metastatic colorectal cancer patients, Leto et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-51909-2
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
Correction: Observed changes in hydroclimate attributed to human forcing, Herrera et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000487
Increasing extreme precipitation variability plays a key role in future record-shattering event probability, de Vries et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01622-1
Climate change mitigation public policy research
Carbon pricing under electricity market constraints: analyzing rent management dynamics in the Republic of Korea, Barlaup & Biedenkopf, Climate Policy Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2024.2394508
Carbon reduction and nuclear energy policy U-turn: the necessity for an international treaty on small modular reactors (SMR) new nuclear technology, Nriezedi-Anejionu, Carbon Management Open Access 10.1080/17583004.2024.2396585
Debt as catalyst: Empowering renewable energy in developing countries, Kushawaha & Jain Jain, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114336
Decarbonization, hegemonic projects, and the green growth policy-planning network: the case of Québec, Viens et al., Environmental Sociology Open Access 10.1080/23251042.2024.2387418
Empowering the solar energy landscape: The techno-economic analysis of grid-connected PV power plants in Uganda, Katongole et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101544
Energy transition at the crossroads of energy depletion and environmental policy stringency: Energy policy framework for energy giants in the indo-pacific belt, Huang et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114311
Examining the evolution of extreme precipitation event using reanalysis and the observed datasets along the Western Ghats, Khadke et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8610
Framing Climate Solutions: An Exploratory Quantitative Content Analysis, Thier & Wu , Environmental Communication Open Access 10.1080/17524032.2024.2396978
Humans modulate the climate sensitivity of Arctic–boreal wildfires, , Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-024-01522-1
The AFOLU sector’s role in national decarbonization: a comparative analysis of low-GHG development pathways in Brazil, India and Indonesia, Svensson et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2391048
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
A Climate Services Dialog to Build Sector-Based Climate Early Warning Systems in the Republic of Palau, Brewington et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-24-0157.1
Advancing urban climate adaptation through knowledge exchange: A case study of New York City, Bridges et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102100
Agenda-setting and policy leadership for municipal climate change adaptation, Rogers et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103869
Anthropogenic Climate Change and Urbanization Exacerbate Risk of Hybrid Heat Extremes in China, Luo et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2024jd041568
Climate change in Africa: Impacts, adaptation, and policy responses, Fonjong et al., Global Environmental Change 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102912
Exposure of rural Alaskan infrastructure to coastal erosion and permafrost subsidence, Brown et al., Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access 10.1088/2634-4505/ad6bbe
Climate change impacts on human health
Population at risk of dengue virus transmission has increased due to coupled climate factors and population growth, Nakase et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01639-6
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Integrating night studies into climate science, Kolioulis et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02117-9
Preface: Special Issue on Probing the Open Ocean With the Research Sailing Yacht Eugen Seibold for Climate Geochemistry, Schiebel et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jd040581
Book reviews
Climate Capitalism: Winning the Race to Zero Emissions and Solving the Crisis of Our Age, , Science Open Access pdf 10.1126/science.adr9659
The dawn of climate security, Ali, Science 10.1126/science.adq4752
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
Quarterly EV Cost Savings Report, Coltura
Drivers in all 50 states are experiencing significant fuel savings from driving an electric vehicle. In Q2 2024, based on US average gasoline prices, utility rates, and fuel efficiency, an American driver saves 8.1 cents per mile on fuel by driving an EV instead of a gas car, up from 7.6 cents at the end of 2023. The average U.S. EV driver saved $100 a month on fuel and maintenance in the second quarter. A gasoline Superuser (a person in the top 10{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71} of US gasoline consumption) who uses more than 100 gallons a month would save on average $400 on fuel and maintenance with an EV. The analysis also breaks this down by state and by vehicle type. Per mile, the greatest savings are from drivers in Washington state — because of its high gas prices and low electricity prices — where drivers can save 13.1 cents per mile on fuel, which translates to $120 a month on average. Electricity is cheaper than gasoline in all 50 states and DC, for all vehicle types. Even in a state with relatively low gas costs and high electricity rates, such as Massachusetts, fuel savings for switching to an EV are 4.7 cents per mile, $44 per month on average.
2024 U.S. Energy and Employment Report, Office of Energy Jobs, Department of Energy
In 2023, jobs in clean energy grew at more than twice the rate of the strong overall U.S. labor market. Clean energy jobs grew at double the rate (4.2{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71}) of job growth in the rest of the economy (2.0{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71}), adding 142,000 new jobs. For the first time, unionization rates in clean energy (12.4{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71}) surpassed the energy sector average (11{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71}). And unionized employers reported less difficulty hiring than non-union employers, with both employer groups reporting an easier time hiring workers than last year. Veterans accounted for 9{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71} of the U.S. energy workforce, greater than their representation in the overall U.S. workforce, at 5{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71}. The energy workforce is younger than average, with 29{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71} of workers below the age of 30. Latino and Hispanic workers held nearly one-third of the new energy jobs created in 2023, growing by 79,000 workers.
Funding Failure: Carbon Capture and Fossil Hydrogen Subsidies Exposed, Stockman et al, Oil Change International
Decades of subsidies have already provided billions in support of carbon capture. Subsidies are supporting the production of more fossil fuels. Recent policy announcements will greatly increase the scale of subsidies and will result in unprecedented levels of support for carbon capture. Carbon capture subsidies are breaking promises to end fossil fuel subsidies.
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet, Libya, Iversen et al, The Norwegian Institute of International Affairs and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Libya is exposed to a number of climate hazards. In September 2023, Storm Daniel caused severe rainfall and floods, triggering the collapse of two aging dams in eastern Libya. This left a trail of destruction in the city of Derna and its surrounding areas. Libya is also one of the driest and most water-stressed countries in the world; it is prone to drought and less than two percent of the country receives enough rain to sustain agriculture. Climate stressors are in turn aggravated by political turmoil, a divided government, protracted conflict and the presence of a plethora of armed groups. These factors, which have contributed to mismanagement, corruption and a lack of good governance, affect efforts to address climate-related risks, including those that may influence peace and security dynamics.
How Climate Change Impacts Nutrition Security in Lowand Middle-Income Countries, Ramya Ambikapathi and Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Farm Journal Foundation
The U.S. government should consider the following to support global nutrition security such as supporting greater investments in agricultural research and development, investing in programs that benefit women’s nutrition and women working in agriculture and food systems, and incentivizing governments to expand access to technical assistance and extension services.
Wargaming Climate Change A Structure for Incorporating Physical and Social Effects into Strategic Military Planning, Tingstad et al, RAND
The authors summarize insights about approaches for understanding the implications of climate change in a national security context through the use of analytic gaming. These reflections are based on experience that has been developed while gaming climate change for the U.S. Department of Defense. There are multiple sources of climate information and data that are available to the defense gaming community, but using these sources effectively requires knowledge of how to obtain them and their respective benefits and limitations. Wargames focusing on or including climate change can serve purposes from concept development to education to engagement. Climate information and data can be used to shape assumptions, model starting conditions, create crisis narratives, move scene-setters, and make final adjudications.
Sustaining, Nurturing, Shaping: Utilizing Conflict Transformation Processes for Overcoming the Climate Crisis, Froese et al, Toda Peace Institute
The interconnectedness of climate change and conflicts is manifold and increasingly being addressed in politics and research. However, there is still little research on the positive connections between sustainable, anti-hegemonic peace and climate justice. Necessary social-ecological transformations are accompanied by conflicts which must be addressed constructively. At the same time, obstacles such as (colonial) structures of domination, power, and inequality must be overcome. The authors combine climate policy strategies with civil conflict transformation and outline ideas towards shaping a sustained nurturing of the social ecological transformation.
Minimizing Mining Impacts on the Road to Zero Emissions Transport, Dominish et al, Earthworks
The authors outline specific measures to avoid the harmful environmental and social impacts associated with increased mineral mining for electric vehicle batteries while maintaining the transition from fossil fuel-based transport systems.
State of the Climate in Africa 2023, World Meteorological Organization
The authors provide informed climate analysis, describe notable hydro-meteorological events, impacts, and risks, and identify key climate policies and strategic elements to build a more sustainable and climate-resilience future for Africa.
Breaking Ground: The Inflation Reduction Act Two Years In, Climate Jobs National Resource Center
The authors analyze the clean energy projects that could be eligible for the IRA tax incentives that are maximized when projects adhere to prevailing wage and apprenticeship standards to create high-quality jobs, highlighting the Act’s potential to redress not only the climate crisis but the concurrent crisis of racial and economic inequality as well. The authors also outline the critical role that labor unions are playing in realizing the IRA’s goals of accelerating climate action and creating high-quality jobs, concluding that partnering with labor unions may be one of the most reliable ways to ensure that clean energy projects supported by the IRA get built, meet applicable labor standards to maximize their federal incentives, and expand access to union jobs in under-resourced or marginalized communities.
ESS Price Forecasting Report, Q2 2024, Clean Energy Associates
Ongoing supply chain issues, changing global market dynamics, and the rising demand for energy storage solutions are leading to challenges for buyers of energy storage system (ESS) equipment. To navigate this complex landscape, companies need a reliable tool to predict future cost and pricing trends thus the ESS Price Forecasting Report. Global lithium-ion battery supply remains out of balance. Lithium prices show no signs of a rebound during the outlook period. Price forecast is exhibiting increased policy-derived volatility. Lithium price convergence continues.
ESS Supply, Technology, and Policy Report, Q2 2024, Clean Energy Associates
Lithium supply continues to remain higher than the demand. The projected 2024 surplus, however, declined as hard-rock miners further cut production. Small OEMs and Chinese suppliers continue to face challenges. Tier 1 (non-China) suppliers continue to adjust their planned capacity amid weak EV demand growth. Europe’s 2025 domestic planned cell capacity declined. Weak EV demand growth pushes suppliers to reduce their planned production targets.
Sector Report: Energy. Highland Climate Risk & Opportunity Assessment Economic Analysis, England et al, Highland Adapts
The authors identified significant potential negative economic impacts to Highland from climate change, though there is a degree of uncertainty in each of the areas explored. However, the authors identified positive effects, some of which could be large. For the energy sector, the aggregate costs were estimated to be in the high tens of millions a year, rising over time. These provide further support to the need for urgent mitigation of emissions. While the majority of the impacts were negative, the analysis also identified that future climate change will have modest positive effects. There is a degree of uncertainty in each of the areas explored and the costs and benefits fall on different actors, such as households, businesses, and asset owners.
Regional Report. Highland Climate Risk & Opportunity Assessment Economic Analysis, England, Highlands Adapts
The authors present the results of a study on the current and future economic costs and benefits of climate change for the Highland region. The analysis draws on existing data sets and information from stakeholders, providing an initial quantitative analysis of some of the most important climate risks and opportunities for the region. The work finds significant overall costs arising from climate change, but also some benefits. This highlights that while the impacts will be overwhelmingly negative, they will not impact people or sectors of the economy equally.
Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions
We know it’s frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as “On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light” but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article’s relevance and importance.
- Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71} success rate
- The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you’re interested in an article title and it is not listed here as “open access,” be sure to check the link anyway.
How is New Research assembled?
Most articles appearing here are found via RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance.
Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database.
The objective of New Research isn’t to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers’ impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:
- Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a “yes” to this automatically.
- Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week’s 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.
A few journals offer public access to “preprint” versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we’ll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as “preprint.”
The section “Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives” includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of “perspectives,” observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.
Suggestions
Please let us know if you’re aware of an article you think may be of interest for Skeptical Science research news, or if we’ve missed something that may be important. Send your input to Skeptical Science via our contact form.
Journals covered
A list of journals we cover may be found here. We welcome pointers to omissions, new journals etc.
Previous edition
The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here.