Skeptical Science New Research for Week #34 2024

Posted on 22 August 2024 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Open access notables

The ocean losing its breath under the heatwaves, Li et al., Nature Communications:

The world’s oceans are under threat from the prevalence of heatwaves caused by climate change. Despite this, there is a lack of understanding regarding their impact on seawater oxygen levels – a crucial element in sustaining biological survival. Here, we find that heatwaves can trigger low-oxygen extreme events, thereby amplifying the signal of deoxygenation. By utilizing in situ observations and state-of-the-art climate model simulations, we provide a global assessment of the relationship between the two types of extreme events in the surface ocean (0–10 m). Our results show compelling evidence of a remarkable surge in the co-occurrence of marine heatwaves and low-oxygen extreme events. Hotspots of these concurrent stressors are identified in the study, indicating that this intensification is more pronounced in high-biomass regions than in those with relatively low biomass. The rise in the compound events is primarily attributable to long-term warming primarily induced by anthropogenic forcing, in tandem with natural internal variability modulating their spatial distribution. Our findings suggest the ocean is losing its breath under the influence of heatwaves, potentially experiencing more severe damage than previously anticipated.

Should we change the term we use for “climate change”? Evidence from a national U.S. terminology experiment, Bruine de Bruin et al., Climatic Change:

The terms “global warming,” “climate crisis,” “climate emergency,” and “climate justice” each draw attention to different aspects of climate change. Psychological theories of attitude formation suggest that people’s attitudes can be influenced by such variations in terminology. In a national experiment, we randomly assigned a national sample of 5,137 U.S. residents to “climate change,” “global warming,” “climate crisis,” “climate emergency,” or “climate justice” and examined their responses. Overall, “climate change” and “global warming” were rated as most familiar and most concerning, and “climate justice” the least, with ratings for “climate crisis” and “climate emergency” falling in between. Moreover, we find no evidence for “climate crisis” or “climate emergency” eliciting more perceived urgency than “climate change” or “global warming.” Rated willingness to support climate-friendly policies and eat less red meat were less affected by presented terms, but they were lowest for “climate justice.” Although effects of terms on rated familiarity, concern, and perceived urgency varied by political leaning, “climate justice” generally received the lowest ratings on these variables among Democrats, Republicans, and Independent/others. Auxiliary analyses found that when terms were unfamiliar, participants were generally less likely to express concern, urgency, policy support, or willingness to eat less red meat. We therefore recommend sticking with familiar terms, conclude that changing terminology is likely not the key solution for promoting climate action, and suggest alternative communication strategies.

Reducing climate change impacts from the global food system through diet shifts, Li et al., Nature Climate Change:

How much and what we eat and where it is produced can create huge differences in GHG emissions. On the basis of detailed household-expenditure data, we evaluate the unequal distribution of dietary emissions from 140 food products in 139 countries or areas and further model changes in emissions of global diet shifts. Within countries, consumer groups with higher expenditures generally cause more dietary emissions due to higher red meat and dairy intake. Such inequality is more pronounced in low-income countries. The present global annual dietary emissions would fall by 17{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71} with the worldwide adoption of the EAT-Lancet planetary health diet, primarily attributed to shifts from red meat to legumes and nuts as principal protein sources. More than half (56.9{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71}) of the global population, which is presently overconsuming, would save 32.4{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71} of global emissions through diet shifts, offsetting the 15.4{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71} increase in global emissions from presently underconsuming populations moving towards healthier diets.

Rapid intensification of tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico is more likely during marine heatwaves, Radfar et al., Communications Earth & Environment:

Tropical cyclones can rapidly intensify under favorable oceanic and atmospheric conditions. This phenomenon is complex and difficult to predict, making it a serious challenge for coastal communities. A key contributing factor to the intensification process is the presence of prolonged high sea surface temperatures, also known as marine heatwaves. However, the extent to which marine heatwaves contribute to the potential of rapid intensification events is not yet fully explored. Here, we conduct a probabilistic analysis to assess how the likelihood of rapid intensification changes during marine heatwaves in the Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Caribbean Sea. Approximately 70{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71} of hurricanes that formed between 1950 and 2022 were influenced by marine heatwaves. Notably, rapid intensification is, on average, 50{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71} more likely during marine heatwaves. As marine heatwaves are on the increase due to climate change, our findings indicate that more frequent rapid intensification events can be expected in the warming climate.

Significant challenges to the sustainability of the California coast considering climate change, Thorne et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences:

Evidence from California and across the United States shows that climate change is impacting coastal communities and challenging managers with a plethora of stressors already present. Widespread action could be taken that would sustain California’s coastal ecosystems and communities. In this perspective, we highlight the main threat to coastal sustainability: the compound effects of episodic events amplified with ongoing climate change, which will present unprecedented challenges to the state. We present two key challenges for California’s sustainability in the coastal zone: 1) accelerating sea-level rise combined with storm impacts, and 2) continued warming of the oceans and marine heatwaves. Cascading effects from these types of compounding events will occur within the context of an already stressed system that has experienced extensive alterations due to intensive development, resource extraction and harvesting, spatial containment, and other human use pressures. 

145 articles in 66 journals by 826 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Assessing the volume of warm water entering the Indian Ocean and surface temperature changes in Persian Gulf, Azar et al., International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology 10.1007/s13762-024-05891-3

Deforestation amplifies climate change effects on warming and cloud level rise in African montane forests, Abera et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-51324-7

Drivers of long-term changes in summer compound hot extremes in China: Climate change, urbanization, and vegetation greening, Ji et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107632

Quantifying Changes in the Arctic Shortwave Cloud Radiative Effects, Kim et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2023jd040707

Responses of Lower-Stratospheric Water Vapor to Regional Sea Surface Temperature Changes, Zhou et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0600.1

The importance of geography in forecasting future fire patterns under climate change, Syphard et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2310076121

Observations of climate change, effects

Air temperature change and drought effect on water tension and internal migration in Iran, Bashirian & Rahimi, Natural Hazards 10.1007/s11069-024-06842-4

Asymmetric Sea Surface Salinity Response to Global Warming: “Fresh Gets Fresher but Salty Hesitates”, Douville & Cheng, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2023gl107944

Evaluating warming trend over the tibetan plateau based on remotely sensed air temperature from 2001 to 2020, Xin et al., Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-024-03791-6

Global Warming Favors Rapid Burial of Silver in the Vietnam Upwelling Area, Xu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2023gl106411

Observed Changes in Extreme Precipitation Associated with U.S. Tropical Cyclones, Uehling & Schreck, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0327.1

Patterns and Trends in Northern Hemisphere River Ice Phenology from 2000 to 2021, Wang & Feng Feng, Remote Sensing of Environment 10.1016/j.rse.2024.114346

Running to warmer-drier springs in the Greater Mekong Subregion as climate warms, Dong et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107606

Spatiotemporal analysis of compound droughts and heat waves in the Horn of Africa, Alasow et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8595

State of Wildfires 2023–2024, Jones et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-16-3601-2024

The ocean losing its breath under the heatwaves, Li et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-51323-8

Warming summer temperatures are rapidly restructuring North American bumble bee communities, Hemberger & Williams Neal M. Williams Neal M. Williams Neal M. Williams, Ecology Letters Open Access 10.1111/ele.14492

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

Investigating the potential of oxygen-isotope records from anthropogenic lakes as tracers of 20th century climate change, Tindall et al., The Holocene 10.1177/09596836241266435

Toward Low-Latency Estimation of Atmospheric CO2 Growth Rates Using Satellite Observations: Evaluating Sampling Errors of Satellite and In Situ Observing Approaches, Pandey et al., AGU Advances Open Access 10.1029/2023av001145

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Analyzing climate zone changes in 21st-century China using CMIP6 ensemble projections, Ding et al., Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-024-07361-5

Detectable anthropogenic influence on the changes in structure of precipitation over China using CMIP6 models, Bai et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.1007/s00382-024-07368-y

Ensemble modeling of extreme seasonal temperature trends in Iran under socio-economic scenarios, Kamangar et al., Natural Hazards Open Access 10.1007/s11069-024-06830-8

Future Changes in Day-to-Day Precipitation Variability in Europe, Lhotka et al., Journal of Hydrometeorology 10.1175/jhm-d-23-0206.1

Global Warming–Induced Warmer Surface Water over the East China Sea Can Intensify Typhoons like Hinnamnor, Kim et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-23-0240.1

Increasing frequency and precipitation intensity of convective storms in the Peruvian Central Andes: Projections from convection-permitting regional climate simulations, Huang et al., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 10.1002/qj.4820

network-based constraint to evaluate climate sensitivity, Ricard et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-50813-z

Precipitation Over a Wide Range of Climates Simulated With Comprehensive GCMs, Bonan et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl109892

Suppression of Cold Air Outbreaks over the Interior of North America in a Warmer Climate, Hartig & Tziperman, Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0477.1

The atmospheric effect of aerosols on future tropical cyclone frequency and precipitation in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, Sena et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.1007/s00382-024-07359-z

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024

Assessing the Tropospheric Temperature and Humidity Simulations in CMIP3/5/6 Models Using the AIRS Obs4MIPs V2.1 Data, Tian et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd040536

Earth System Reanalysis in Support of Climate Model Improvements, Stammer et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-24-0110.1

Impacts of Parameterizing Estuary Mixing on the Large-Scale Circulations in the Community Earth System Model, Vettoretti et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0365.1

Near-Term Mediterranean Summer Temperature Climate Projections: A Comparison of Constraining Methods, Cos et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0494.1

Spatially Resolved Temperature Response Functions to CO2 Emissions, Freese et al., Open Access pdf 10.22541/essoar.168986213.37265300/v1