Skeptical Science New Research for Week #33 2024

Posted on 15 August 2024 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Open access notables

The ocean losing its breath under the heatwaves, Li et al., Nature Communications:

Here, we find that heatwaves can trigger low-oxygen extreme events, thereby amplifying the signal of deoxygenation. By utilizing in situ observations and state-of-the-art climate model simulations, we provide a global assessment of the relationship between the two types of extreme events in the surface ocean (0–10 m). Our results show compelling evidence of a remarkable surge in the co-occurrence of marine heatwaves and low-oxygen extreme events. Hotspots of these concurrent stressors are identified in the study, indicating that this intensification is more pronounced in high-biomass regions than in those with relatively low biomass. The rise in the compound events is primarily attributable to long-term warming primarily induced by anthropogenic forcing, in tandem with natural internal variability modulating their spatial distribution. Our findings suggest the ocean is losing its breath under the influence of heatwaves, potentially experiencing more severe damage than previously anticipated.

Quantifying the Mean Sea Level, Tide, and Surge Contributions to Changing Coastal High Water Levels, Palmer et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans:

We used observations from 166 tide gauges, comparing changes between periods from 1983–2001 to 2002–2020 for a global data set (GESLA), and between overlapping periods from 1992–2010 to 2004–2022 for an Australian data set (BoM). The comparison between these periods allowed us to calculate the height that a coastal barrier would need to be modified to avoid more frequent flooding, and to quantify the individual amounts from changes in MSL, tides, and surges. Higher MSL was commonly associated with higher flood probability, but changes in tides and surges made important differences for many sites. On average, a coastal barrier exceeded once per year in the earlier period was overtopped at least twice per year in the more recent period.

On Thin Ice: Solar Geoengineering to Manage Tipping Element Risks in the Cryosphere by 2040, Smith et al., Earth’s Future:

Tipping elements are features of the climate system that can display self-reinforcing and non-linear responses if pushed beyond a certain threshold (the “tipping point”). Models suggest that we may surpass several of these tipping points in the next few decades, irrespective of which emissions pathway humanity follows. Some tipping elements reside in the Arctic and Antarctic and could potentially be avoided or arrested via a stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) program applied only at the poles. This paper considers the utility of proactively developing the capacity to respond to emergent tipping element threats at the poles as a matter of risk management. It then examines both the air and ground infrastructure that would be required to operationalize such capability by 2040 and finds that this would require a funded launch decision by a financially credible actor by roughly 2030.

Should we change the term we use for “climate change”? Evidence from a national U.S. terminology experiment, Bruine de Bruin et al., Climatic Change:

The terms “global warming,” “climate crisis,” “climate emergency,” and “climate justice” each draw attention to different aspects of climate change. Psychological theories of attitude formation suggest that people’s attitudes can be influenced by such variations in terminology. In a national experiment, we randomly assigned a national sample of 5,137 U.S. residents to “climate change,” “global warming,” “climate crisis,” “climate emergency,” or “climate justice” and examined their responses. Overall, “climate change” and “global warming” were rated as most familiar and most concerning, and “climate justice” the least, with ratings for “climate crisis” and “climate emergency” falling in between. Moreover, we find no evidence for “climate crisis” or “climate emergency” eliciting more perceived urgency than “climate change” or “global warming.

Feasibility of peak temperature targets in light of institutional constraints, Bertram et al., Nature Climate Change:

Despite faster-than-expected progress in clean energy technology deployment, global annual CO2 emissions have increased from 2020 to 2023. The feasibility of limiting warming to 1.5 °C is therefore questioned. Here we present a model intercomparison study that accounts for emissions trends until 2023 and compares cost-effective scenarios to alternative scenarios with institutional, geophysical and technological feasibility constraints and enablers informed by previous literature. Our results show that the most ambitious mitigation trajectories with updated climate information still manage to limit peak warming to below 1.6 °C (‘low overshoot’) with around 50{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71} likelihood. However, feasibility constraints, especially in the institutional dimension, decrease this maximum likelihood considerably to 5–45{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71}. Accelerated energy demand transformation can reduce costs for staying below 2 °C but have only a limited impact on further increasing the likelihood of limiting warming to 1.6 °C. Our study helps to establish a new benchmark of mitigation scenarios that goes beyond the dominant cost-effective scenario design.

Significant challenges to the sustainability of the California coast considering climate change, Thorne et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences:

Evidence from California and across the United States shows that climate change is impacting coastal communities and challenging managers with a plethora of stressors already present. Widespread action could be taken that would sustain California’s coastal ecosystems and communities. In this perspective, we highlight the main threat to coastal sustainability: the compound effects of episodic events amplified with ongoing climate change, which will present unprecedented challenges to the state. We present two key challenges for California’s sustainability in the coastal zone: 1) accelerating sea-level rise combined with storm impacts, and 2) continued warming of the oceans and marine heatwaves. Cascading effects from these types of compounding events will occur within the context of an already stressed system that has experienced extensive alterations due to intensive development, resource extraction and harvesting, spatial containment, and other human use pressures. 

From this week’s government and NGO section:

Fueling the Opposition How Fossil Fuel Interests Are Fighting to Kill Wind and Solar Farms Before They Are Built, David Anderson, The Energy and Policy Institute

The author identifies some of the major players involved in disinformation campaigns targeting renewable energy projects and technologies, including funders from the coal, petroleum, and methane gas industries; networks of front groups and political operatives paid by these fossil fuel interests; and the cadre of top anti-wind and anti-solar activists who have coordinated closely with these front groups and operatives for over a decade. The author helps to answer frequently asked questions about the role the fossil fuel industry has played in stoking opposition to renewable energy projects and comes at a time when many of these same opponents are escalating their attacks and seeking to derail the Inflation Reduction Act’s historic investment in renewables

The False Promise and Potential Health Harms of Carbon Dioxide Enhanced Oil Recovery (CO2 EOR) as a Tool of Climate Mitigation, Science and Environmental Health Network and the Bold Alliance

Using increasing amounts of newly subsidized carbon dioxide (CO2) to remove oil from the ground is the next phase in the fossil fuel industry’s bid to extend the use of fossil fuels far into the future. While the industry claims that carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery (CO2 EOR) is a tool of climate mitigation, it perpetuates oil and gas extraction and generates more greenhouse gases. Subsidized by public money through excessively generous tax credits, CO2 EOR not only exacerbates climate change but also causes unusual public health and environmental damage. The authors explore the history and geology of CO2 EOR, describe the public health, environment, and climate impacts, and conclude that our commitment to future generations requires a halt to this practice.

142 articles in 66 journals by 808 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Assessing the volume of warm water entering the Indian Ocean and surface temperature changes in Persian Gulf, Azar et al., International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology 10.1007/s13762-024-05891-3

Deforestation amplifies climate change effects on warming and cloud level rise in African montane forests, Abera et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-51324-7

Drivers of long-term changes in summer compound hot extremes in China: Climate change, urbanization, and vegetation greening, Ji et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107632

Quantifying Changes in the Arctic Shortwave Cloud Radiative Effects, Kim et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2023jd040707

Responses of Lower-Stratospheric Water Vapor to Regional Sea Surface Temperature Changes, Zhou et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0600.1

The importance of geography in forecasting future fire patterns under climate change, Syphard et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2310076121

Observations of climate change, effects

Air temperature change and drought effect on water tension and internal migration in Iran, Bashirian & Rahimi, Natural Hazards 10.1007/s11069-024-06842-4

Asymmetric Sea Surface Salinity Response to Global Warming: “Fresh Gets Fresher but Salty Hesitates”, Douville & Cheng, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2023gl107944

Evaluating warming trend over the tibetan plateau based on remotely sensed air temperature from 2001 to 2020, Xin et al., Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-024-03791-6

Global Warming Favors Rapid Burial of Silver in the Vietnam Upwelling Area, Xu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2023gl106411

Observed Changes in Extreme Precipitation Associated with U.S. Tropical Cyclones, Uehling & Schreck, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0327.1

Patterns and Trends in Northern Hemisphere River Ice Phenology from 2000 to 2021, Wang & Feng Feng, Remote Sensing of Environment 10.1016/j.rse.2024.114346

Running to warmer-drier springs in the Greater Mekong Subregion as climate warms, Dong et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107606

Spatiotemporal analysis of compound droughts and heat waves in the Horn of Africa, Alasow et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8595

State of Wildfires 2023–2024, Jones et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-16-3601-2024

The ocean losing its breath under the heatwaves, Li et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-51323-8

Warming summer temperatures are rapidly restructuring North American bumble bee communities, Hemberger & Williams Neal M. Williams Neal M. Williams Neal M. Williams, Ecology Letters Open Access 10.1111/ele.14492

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

Investigating the potential of oxygen-isotope records from anthropogenic lakes as tracers of 20th century climate change, Tindall et al., The Holocene 10.1177/09596836241266435

Toward Low-Latency Estimation of Atmospheric CO2 Growth Rates Using Satellite Observations: Evaluating Sampling Errors of Satellite and In Situ Observing Approaches, Pandey et al., AGU Advances Open Access 10.1029/2023av001145

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Analyzing climate zone changes in 21st-century China using CMIP6 ensemble projections, Ding et al., Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-024-07361-5

Detectable anthropogenic influence on the changes in structure of precipitation over China using CMIP6 models, Bai et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.1007/s00382-024-07368-y

Ensemble modeling of extreme seasonal temperature trends in Iran under socio-economic scenarios, Kamangar et al., Natural Hazards Open Access 10.1007/s11069-024-06830-8

Future Changes in Day-to-Day Precipitation Variability in Europe, Lhotka et al., Journal of Hydrometeorology 10.1175/jhm-d-23-0206.1

Global Warming–Induced Warmer Surface Water over the East China Sea Can Intensify Typhoons like Hinnamnor, Kim et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-23-0240.1

Increasing frequency and precipitation intensity of convective storms in the Peruvian Central Andes: Projections from convection-permitting regional climate simulations, Huang et al., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 10.1002/qj.4820

network-based constraint to evaluate climate sensitivity, Ricard et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-50813-z

Precipitation Over a Wide Range of Climates Simulated With Comprehensive GCMs, Bonan et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl109892

Suppression of Cold Air Outbreaks over the Interior of North America in a Warmer Climate, Hartig & Tziperman, Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0477.1

The atmospheric effect of aerosols on future tropical cyclone frequency and precipitation in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, Sena et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.1007/s00382-024-07359-z

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024

Assessing the Tropospheric Temperature and Humidity Simulations in CMIP3/5/6 Models Using the AIRS Obs4MIPs V2.1 Data, Tian et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd040536

Earth System Reanalysis in Support of Climate Model Improvements, Stammer et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-24-0110.1

Impacts of Parameterizing Estuary Mixing on the Large-Scale Circulations in the Community Earth System Model, Vettoretti et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0365.1

Near-Term Mediterranean Summer Temperature Climate Projections: A Comparison of Constraining Methods, Cos et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0494.1

Spatially Resolved Temperature Response Functions to CO2 Emissions, Freese et al., Open Access pdf 10.22541/essoar.168986213.37265300/v1