Skeptical Science New Research for Week #30 2024

Towards a more transformative approach to climate finance, Newell, Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2024.2377730

Climate change and the circular economy

Multi-objective artificial bee colony algorithm for reducing carbon emission and maximizing profit in a circular supply chain network, Sakthivel et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-05233-w

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Bangladesh’s pathways to net-zero transition: Reassessing country’s solar PV potential with high-resolution GIS data, Hasan et al., Energy for Sustainable Development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101511

Changing carbon footprints and the consequent impacts of carbon taxes and cash transfers on poverty and inequality across years: A Peruvian case study, Malerba et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114246

Designing a cost-effective policy mix for transition toward net-zero emissions: a case study of the mid-term plan by 2035 of Taiwan, Wu & Lee, Carbon Management Open Access 10.1080/17583004.2024.2379545

Effects of gift card on an environmental and a newsvendor issue, Lashgari et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-04042-x

Electricity generation portfolios in Mexico: Environmental, economic, and policy implications, Juárez-Luna & Mosiño Mosiño, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114258

Just transition as practitioners’ acceptance of technical solutions to decarbonize: Insights from the glass manufacturing industry, Gong et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114268

Legitimizing sustainability transitions through stakeholder participation: Evaluating the Coal Commission in Germany, Radtke & Löw Beer, Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103667

Overcoming the headwinds: Can policy design shape public acceptance of wind power in Sweden?, Lindvall et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103674

Policy complementarities in the promotion of electric vehicles, Burra et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114262

Power supply disruptions deter electric vehicle adoption in cities in China, Qiu et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-50447-1

Reimagining energy infrastructure for justice: Power, politics, and institutional work in India’s 2.05 GW Pavagada solar park, Haldar et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103645

Science-based principles for corporate climate transition risk quantification, Khan et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02067-2

Study on carbon emission characteristics and its influencing factors of energy consumption in Sichuan Province, China, Li et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1414730

Study on stochastic convergence of China’s carbon emission efficiency, Xu et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2024.2375744

The changing mix of fossil fuels used and the related evolution of CO2 emissions, Hefner et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Open Access 10.1007/s11027-024-10149-x

Why do sustainable materialism initiatives rise and fall over time? Insights from the case of cooperative energy projects in Denmark and France, Wokuri, Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2024.2377925

“Climate-Solutions Polarization”: A Value-based Approach to Understanding Polarization Dynamics around Biomass in Dutch Media Discourse, van Eck et al., Environmental Communication Open Access 10.1080/17524032.2024.2376688

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Climate mobility and migrant health in West Africa: past norms, current challenges, and future projections, Maduforo et al., Regional Environmental Change 10.1007/s10113-024-02271-y

Enhanced policy adequacy facilitates national climate adaptation tracking across Africa, Nowak et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02055-6

Fueling the fires – An exploration of the drivers and the scope for management of European wildfire risk under the Shared socioeconomic Pathways, Preinfalk & Handmer, Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100638

Opportunities to strengthen Africa’s efforts to track national-level climate adaptation, Nowak et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-024-02054-7

Organisational perceptions of adapting to a changing climate, Dookie et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100637

Reconsidering National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) as a Policy Framework under the UNFCCC, Mizuno & Okano, Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2024.2378194

The necessity of pragmatic muddling. Ten Swedish early adopter cities navigating climate adaptation policy-implementation in the urban built environment, Storbjörk et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103842

Weaving scientific and local knowledge on climate change impacts in coastal Kenya, Western Indian Ocean, Chambon et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103846

Climate change impacts on human health

Emerging Risk to Dengue in Asian Metropolitan Areas Under Global Warming, Jing et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004548

Health and equity implications of individual adaptation to air pollution in a changing climate, Sparks et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2215685121

Impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of Pulex simulans and Polygenis gwyni, Wang et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.11621

Indoor overheating: A review of vulnerabilities, causes, and strategies to prevent adverse human health outcomes during extreme heat events, Kenny et al., Temperature Open Access pdf 10.1080/23328940.2024.2361223

Other

How Has the Ferrel Cell Contributed to the Maintenance of Antarctic Sea Ice at Low Levels From 2016 to 2022?, Wang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl108801

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Carbon Cycle–Climate Feedbacks in the Post-Paris World, Schimel & Carroll, Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 10.1146/annurev-earth-031621-081700

Introduction to the special section: unfolding a governance perspective on climate-related mobilities, Lindegaard et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2024.2379464

Science-based targets miss the mark, Reisinger et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01535-z

Scientists at odds over wild plans to slow melting glaciers, Richter, Science 10.1126/science.adr8012

The Anthropocene Is More Than a Time Interval, Edgeworth et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004831

We need better and more PopSci by scientists, Fuentes, Science 10.1126/science.adq8026

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Climate Deniers of the 118th Congress, Kat So, The Center for American Progress

Currently, 123 members of the 118th Congress publicly deny the scientific consensus of human-caused climate change. These 100 representatives and 23 senators wield significant influence on public perceptions of climate change as well as on the speed and direction of climate policy in the United States. Members of Congress also receive publicly disclosed contributions, which may provide a window into the possible influence of the fossil fuel industry.

The Co-Located Load Solution, Michael Kormos, The Nuclear Energy Institute

While co-location could involve the pairing of any type of power plant with any large load, existing nuclear plants provide some of the best opportunities for data centers. Nuclear plants are large, often with multiple units, carbon-free and sustainable, and capable of and preferring to run at maximum power for up to 18 to 24 months, which matches perfectly with the data center load profile.

Protecting Communities, Preserving Nature, and Building Resiliency. How First-of-Its-Kind Climate Insurance Will Help Combat the Costs of Wildfires, Extreme Heat, and Floods, Climate Insurance Working Group, California Department of Insurance

Through examination and discussion of recent climate events in California and their affects on vulnerable communities, the authors identify four key elements of resilience – risk assessment, risk communication, risk reduction, and risk transfer. The authors then apply these key elements of risk to three specific perils – wildfire, flood, and extreme heat to provide specific recommendations for preventing and managing the risks associated with these perils, including closing coverage gaps and strengthening the role of mitigation investments in reducing mounting climate risks to communities.

Regional Consultation for the South Caucasus. Armenia and Georgia: Co-operation opportunities for addressing the security implications of climate change, Rüttinger et al., Organization for Security and Co-operation In Europe

The authors present the results of the bilateral consultation process on climate change and security between Armenia and Georgia, involving stakeholders from governmental bodies, civil society organizations, and academia. The consultation process was part of the first phase of a project, which specifically aims to identify cooperation opportunities to address the security implications of climate change. The outlined opportunities will serve as a starting point for the project’s second phase, which will involve the development of cooperation measures.

Turbocharging the Energy Transition, Lukas Trakimavi?ius, European Union Institute for Security Studies

Perovskite solar cells, next-generation geothermal, advanced biofuels, and sodium-ion batteries are among the many emerging technologies that merit greater attention from Brussels. Not only could they help the Europen Union achieve its climate and energy goals, but they could also reduce its reliance on China.

Building a Climate for Peace. Climate Security in South Asia, Kubernein, adelphi research

The authors present a deeper understanding of the climate security risks posed to South Asia and an overview of the current policy landscape. More importantly, they also draw out future scenarios to understand the interconnectedness of these risks. The author’s recommendations are based on intensive background research, expert interviews as well as a virtual and in-person consultative workshop.

Accelerating the energy transition in the Eastern Caribbean, Wazim Mowla, The Atlantic Council

The author identifies two main constraints to the region’s transition: the top-down vertically integrated nature of state-owned utility systems; and limited access to low-cost financing and credit to governments and clean energy developers. While recognizing that an energy transition requires a holistic approach, the starting point must address utility constraints and access to finance to ensure a reliable and resilient energy system transformation that is sustainable and affordable for consumers, governments, and the private sector in the Eastern Caribbean. An energy transition in the Eastern Caribbean must ensure reliable power to combat price volatility for consumers while energy infrastructure should be resilient to the effects of climate change, hurricanes and strong tropical storms, and rising temperatures.

Scenarios for Offshore Wind Development in Brazil, The World Bank

The authors prepared the report to support the government of Brazil in setting public policies toward its energy transition by looking at offshore wind development. There are a variety of reasons why Brazil might choose to pursue offshore wind development at scale; Offshore wind as “Brazil’s new hydro, ”; long-term cost-competitiveness and price stability; generation close to demand to reduce transmission losses; offshore wind as a foundation for GH2 production, and economic development and job creation.

The New Merchants of Doubt. The corporate playbook by Big Meat and Dairy to distract, delay, and derail climate action, Changing Markets Foundation

The authors present the tactics of Big Meat and Dairy companies to delay, distract, and derail action on food system transformation, mirroring the tactics previously used by tobacco and the fossil fuel industry. Food systems are responsible for around a third of total greenhouse gas emissions, with approximately 60{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71} of that coming from animal agriculture which is also the single largest source of man-made methane emissions. The authors provide a detailed analysis of different corporate narratives to consumers, media, and policymakers, showing how the industry distracts us with the smokescreen of voluntary climate targets, environmentally friendly products, and seemingly ambitious investments in emissions reduction technologies, while behind the scenes, it mobilizes significant resources to delay and derail progressive environmental legislation.

Green Industrial Policy’s Unfinished Business: A Publicly Managed Fossil Fuel Wind-Down, Kate Aronoff, Roosevelt Institute

Fossil fuel extraction, production, and use must decline rapidly to meet even modest climate goals. Leading climate policies today rely primarily on increasing the production and deployment of renewable and zero-carbon energy in the hopes that those will displace fossil fuels throughout the world’s energy systems. While green industrial policies are helping to increase the availability of such fuels and bring down their cost, there are few policies in place to deal explicitly with the much thornier question of winding down the fossil fuel economy: grappling with ongoing, uneven declines and changes in a predominately carbon-based energy system; distributing the burdens of those shifts and decarbonization equitably; and, perhaps most important of all, ensuring that absolute production declines do happen at adequate scale and speed.

2024 Arctic Strategy, Department of Defense

The strategy lays out the Department of Defense’s (DoD’s) approach to the Arctic as the region undergoes rapid geophysical and geopolitical change. Climate change and shifts in the geostrategic environment drive the need for a new strategic approach to the Arctic region. The strategy will strengthen the ability of the United States to build integrated deterrence and effectively manage risk to U.S. interests in the Arctic region by enhancing U.S. domain awareness and Arctic capabilities; engaging with Allies, partners, and key stakeholders; and exercising tailored presence.

Evolving Planning Criteria for a Sustainable Power Grid. A Workshop Report, Bose et al., National Academy of Engineering and the North American Electric Reliability Corporation

The authors summarize the proceedings and actionable recommendations from a workshop that focused on examining electric reliability criteria for planning resources and transmission adequacy on the transforming grid. Given that electricity plays an essential role in modern society, energy adequacy is a critical complementary consideration of resource adequacy to ensure overall system reliability. Traditional resource adequacy models and approaches are rooted in a loss of load expectation (LOLE) criterion of 1-day-in-10 years, which is focused on peak hour conditions. However, LOLE does not adequately account for the growing risk, over all hours, arising from increased variability and uncertainty caused by the evolving resource mix and increasing demand levels. A recent survey of electric industry professionals asked them whether industry should consider a new resource criterion. Data from the survey overwhelmingly indicated that industry should consider a new approach—beyond the LOLE criterion alone—to resource adequacy modeling that reflects the reliability needs of the rapidly evolving grid. Survey results indicated that there is not just one solution, and supplemental criteria are needed that consider the size, frequency, timing, and duration of energy shortfalls.

Looming Deadlines for Coastal Resilience Rising Seas, Disruptidve Tides, and Risks to Coastal Infrastructure, Dahl et al., Union of Concerned Scientists

Climate change is rapidly worsening tidal flooding, threatening essential and costly coastal infrastructure that millions of people depend on. Research led by the authors shows that between now and 2050, climate change–driven sea level rise will expose more than 1,600 critical buildings and services to disruptive flooding at least twice per year. This flooding is a particular threat to public and affordable housing—a burden borne inequitably. More than half the infrastructure at risk by 2050 is in communities at a disadvantage based on historical and ongoing racism, discrimination, and pollution.

Global Warming’s Six Audiences Around the World, Carman et al., Yale Program on Climate Change Communication

The author’s prior research has identified six distinct audiences within the public – the Alarmed, Concerned, Cautious, Disengaged, Doubtful, and Dismissive – based on their beliefs and attitudes about climate change. Here, we apply this analysis to our large international survey of more than 100 countries and territories worldwide, collected in partnership with Data for Good at Meta and Rare’s Center for Behavior and the Environment in 2023. We find that the Alarmed are the largest group in about three-fourths of the areas surveyed (87 of the 110). Half or more respondents in thirty-one areas are Alarmed. The five areas with the largest percentage of Alarmed are Puerto Rico (70{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71}), El Salvador (67{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71}), Costa Rica (65{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71}), Chile (64{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71}), and Panama (64{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71}). By contrast, Czechia (10{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71}) and the Netherlands (9{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71}) have the smallest percentages of Alarmed. In the United States, about one-third of respondents are Alarmed (32{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71}). Among all areas, the Netherlands has the highest proportion of Doubtful and Dismissive (30{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71}), followed by Norway (27{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71}) and Libya (25{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71}). In the United States, about one in four respondents are Doubtful or Dismissive (25{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71}).

Taking Stock 2024: US Energy and Emissions Outlook, King et al., Rhodium Group

With all federal and state policies on the books as of June 2024, the authors estimate the U.S. is on track to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 38-56{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71} below 2005 levels in 2035, representing at least a doubling—and potentially as much as a four-times increase—from the pace of annual emissions abatement from 2005 to 2023. On the way to 2035, the authors find the U.S. could reduce its emissions by 32-43{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71} below 2005 levels in 2030. These emissions reductions under the current policy are a measurable acceleration in mitigation. But they are not enough for the U.S. to achieve its 2030 climate commitment under the Paris Agreement of a 50-52{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71} reduction by 2030, or deep decarbonization by mid-century.

Rapid decarbonisation of the GB electricity system, National Engineering Policy Centre

The authors present six key elements required in the government’s delivery plan to achieve its clean power mission, which should be central to its Industrial Strategy. The elements include building strong support for the vision, forming the basis of an enduring agreement with both the public and industry, and helping them to embrace the coming changes; strong central leadership and governance with engineering at the forefront, accountable to the Prime Minister; a digitally enabled system that allows the public to engage with the system more flexibly, benefiting grid operation and saving consumers and government money; a front-foot approach to procurement and regulation to ensure the United Kingdom can get ahead in the global race to decarbonize electricity; tackle difficult planning decisions, consenting, and connection delays while building public support; and retain a long-term view to ensure that the intense focus on delivery towards 2030 does not delay near-term actions needed to unlock the best options for post-2030.

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How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn’t to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers’ impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

• Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a “yes” to this automatically. 
• Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week’s 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to “preprint” versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we’ll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as “preprint.”

The section “Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives” includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of “perspectives,” observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

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Journals covered

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