Skeptical Science New Research for Week #28 2024

The production, distribution and attribution of risk: a conceptual framework to climate-related risk management from the perspective of Arraigo in Bogotá, Colombia, López Meneses, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2024.2369617

Climate change impacts on human health

Extreme Temperatures, Birth Outcomes, and Social Inequalities: Evidence from South China, Wang et al., Weather, Climate, and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-23-0061.1

COther

Beyond disobedience: ethical frontiers and political strategies in the climate crisis, Chen & Zhang, Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2024.2376946

Ocean iron cycle feedbacks decouple atmospheric CO2 from meridional overturning circulation changes, Lauderdale, Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-49274-1

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Charting a course for climate policy: blurred policy boundaries, engaging the global south, and reaching beyond incrementalism, Dubash et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2370637

Climate data democracy is essential for climate action, Nagendra et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000447

Climate research on big ocean islands, Aucan et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02053-8

Higher-resolution projections needed for small island climates, Evans et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02028-9

The urgent need for social science and humanities knowledge for climate action in Europe, Rosamond et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000450

Book reviews

Petrochemical planet. Multiscalar battles of industrial transformation, Ibelli-Bianco, International Journal of Environmental Studies 10.1080/00207233.2023.2270303

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

PREPUBLICATION Modernizing Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimation, National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

For more than 75 years, high-hazard structures in the U.S., including dams and nuclear power plants, have been engineered to withstand floods resulting from the most unlikely but possible precipitation, termed Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP). The authors recommend a new definition of PMP and present a vision for a method relevant to the design, operation, and regulation of critical infrastructure. The new definition targets precipitation depths with an extremely low exceedance probability instead of assuming rainfall is bounded and considers specified climate periods so that PMP estimates can change as the climate changes.

Right to Life with Dignity for Climate Displaced Persons: Proposing a Legal Standard Based on International Human Rights Norms & Local and Indigenous Peoples’ Perspective, Scherer et al., International Center for Advocates Against Discrimination

Drawing on the centrality of dignity, the authors argue for the application of human rights protections to climate-displaced persons.

The use of AI for improving energy security, Rueda et al, RAND

The authors provide insights into the state of the art of AI applications for the power grid and examine the associated risks and opportunities.

Climate Change and Mass Atrocities, Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect

The authors provide an overview of the different ways climate vulnerability and climate change can compound atrocity risks by examining the situations in Yemen, the Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger), and the Lake Chad Basin, with a particular focus on Nigeria.

Global trends in climate change litigation: 2024 snapshot, Joana Setzer and Catherine Higham, The Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change, Environment at the London School of Economics and Political Science

At least 230 new climate cases were filed in 2023. Many of these are seeking to hold governments and companies accountable for climate action. However, the number of cases expanded less rapidly last year than previously, which may suggest a consolidation and concentration of strategic litigation efforts in areas anticipated to have a high impact. Climate cases have continued to spread to new countries, with cases filed for the first time in Panama and Portugal in 2023. 2023 was an important year for international climate change litigation, with major international courts and tribunals being asked to rule and advise on climate change. Just 5{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71} of climate cases have been brought before international courts, but many of these cases have significant potential to influence domestic proceedings.

Climate Justice and Human Mobility: Bridging EU Commitments and Policies, Alicia Scodanibbio, Egmont, Royal Institute for International Relations

The author examines the European Union’s response to the climate-migration nexus, tracing its historical evolution and current challenges. It highlights the need for a human rights-centered approach to policymaking, emphasizing the importance of addressing the structural inequalities and power imbalances inherent in climate-induced migration. By integrating climate justice principles, the EU can pave the way for a more inclusive and sustainable approach to the challenges posed by climate change and human mobility.

Climate Governance in Somaliland: Policy Gaps, Challenges and Participatory Approaches Towards Pastoral Climate Resilience, Sharmaarke Abdi Musse, Toda Peace Institute

The author addresses the critical challenge of climate change adaptation in Somaliland, where the impacts of climate change have led to severe social, economic, political, and ecological consequences. Specifically, the paper emphasizes the urgent need for climate policies and adaptation strategies that cater to the context’s specific needs, effectively bridging global climate action consensus with localized approaches.

Climate Change Indicators in the United States: Fifth Edition, Environmental Protection Agency

The authors document how climate change is affecting the United States today, the significance of these changes, and their possible consequences for people, the environment, and society. Using EPA’s climate change indicators and relevant scientific literature, the authors group indicators into eight themes that help to show interconnections, cause-and-effect relationships, and how physical changes in the atmosphere affect people and the environment. Indicators related to human health and societal impacts of climate change cut across chapter themes and are integrated throughout the report. Each theme includes information on why the changes matter, as well as examples and discussion of the unequal effects of climate change. The authors also provide examples of what people and communities can do to address climate change, and what actions are already underway.

Hurricane-force Winds and Heavy precipitation in Hurricane Beryl mostly strengthened by human driven climate change, Faranda et al., ClimaMeter

Cyclones near Jamaica similar to Hurricane Beryl are up to 30 mm/day (up to 30{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71}) wetter and up to 9 km/h (up to 10{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71}) windier in the present than they have been in the past. Hurricane Beryl was a largely unique event. Natural climate variability likely played a role in driving the pressure pattern and the associated increase in precipitation and wind speed linked to Hurricane Beryl.

Climate in the Crosshairs. The planetary impact of NATO’s spending increases, The Transnational Institute

NATO’s overall military spending in 2023 of $1.34 trillion produces an estimated 233 million metric tonnes of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e). This is more than Colombia’s or Qatar’s annual GHG emissions. NATO’s military spending increase of $126 billion in 2023 will lead to an estimated additional 31 million metric tonnes of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e). This is equivalent to the annual CO2 emissions of around 6.7 million average US cars. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says that a 43{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71} reduction in emissions is needed by all sectors by 2030 compared to 2019 levels to have a chance to keep global average temperature increases below 1.5 degrees Celsius. This would require an annual reduction of military emissions of at least 5{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71}, yet, NATO increased its military emissions by around 15{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71} in 2023 and looks set to continue increasing emissions this decade.

Investing in Climate Chaos 2024: Institutional Investors $4.3 Trillion Deep Into the Fossil Fuel Industry, Urgewald

The authors present the fossil fuel holdings of over 7,500 pension funds, insurance companies, asset managers, hedge funds, sovereign wealth funds, endowment funds, and asset management arms of commercial banks. In May 2024, these institutional investors held $4.3 trillion in bonds and shares of fossil fuel companies. For the second year in a row, Vanguard holds the sad record as the world’s biggest fossil fuel investor. The US asset management company holds and manages assets of coal, oil, and gas companies worth $413 billion. Due to its sheer volume and because it does not have any fossil fuel policy, Vanguard is the number one in fossil fuel investments worldwide. BlackRock, the world’s biggest asset management company, holds rank number 2. Its’ fossil fuels assets add up to $400 billion. Fossil fuel investors number 3 and 4 are State Street, which holds $171 billion, closely followed by Capital Group, which holds $165 billion. Collectively these four US asset managers hold and manage assets in fossil fuel companies worth $1.1 trillion.

Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

We know it’s frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as “On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light”  but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article’s relevance and importance. 

• Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71} success rate

• The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you’re interested in an article title and it is not listed here as “open access,” be sure to check the link anyway. 

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn’t to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers’ impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

• Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a “yes” to this automatically. 
• Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week’s 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to “preprint” versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we’ll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as “preprint.”

The section “Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives” includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of “perspectives,” observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

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Journals covered

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