Earth’s 13th-consecutive warmest month on record

Posted on 17 July 2024 by Guest Author

This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

June 2024 was Earth’s warmest June since global record-keeping began in 1850 and was the planet’s 13th consecutive warmest month on record, NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, or NCEI, reported July 12. As opposed to being focused in one region or another, the record heat was unusually widespread, with 14.5{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71} of the world’s surface experiencing record heat – beating the previous June record set in 2023 by 7.4{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71}.

Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for June 2024, the world’s warmest June since record-keeping began in 1850. Record warm temperatures covered 14.5{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71} of the world’s surface. (Image credit: NOAA/NCEI)

NASA placed June at 1.44 degrees Celsius (2.59 °F) above the 1880-1899 period, its best estimate for when preindustrial temperatures last occurred. This beat the previous June record (from 2023) by an impressive 0.13 degrees Celsius (0.23 °F).

The European Copernicus Climate Change Service also rated June 2024 as the warmest June on record and said that the global average temperature for the past 12 months (July 2023-June 2024) was the highest on record for any 12-month period, 1.64 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 preindustrial average. 

Land areas had their warmest June on record in 2024, according to NOAA, and for the 15th consecutive month, global ocean temperatures were the warmest on record. The recent record heat in the oceans has brought on a global coral bleaching event, the fourth one in recorded history (1998, 2010, 2014-17, and now 2024).

It was the warmest June on record for Africa, Asia, and South America, second-warmest for Europe, fourth-warmest for North America, and 25th-warmest for Oceania. The Main Development Region for hurricanes in the Atlantic had its warmest June on record, 0.08 degrees Celsius warmer than the previous record-warm June of 2023.

As documented in our previous post, the contiguous U.S. posted its 2nd-warmest June, coming in behind only June 2021. On the local level, a diverse set of towns and cities from Maine to Nevada recorded their warmest June on record. The tally of U.S. billion-dollar weather disasters so far in 2024 has been 15. The average for a full year for the most recent five years (2019–2023) is 20.4; the record was 28, set in 2023.

Satellite-measured temperatures of the planet’s lower atmosphere in June were the warmest on record for the month.

The January to June global surface temperature ranked warmest in NOAA’s 175-year record. According to NOAA/NCEI’s statistical analysis, there is a 59{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71} chance that 2024 will rank as the warmest year on record and a 100{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71} chance that it will rank in the top five. However, global temperatures have cooled slightly in recent weeks compared to July 2023, and climate scientist Zeke Hausfather predicts that July 2024 will be the first month since June 2023 not to set a new monthly global temperature record. Such cooling was expected to occur with the departure of El Niño conditions.

Neutral ENSO conditions expected to transition to La Niña this fall

The 2023-24 El Niño event in the Eastern Pacific ended during May, and neutral conditions are now in place, NOAA reported in its latest monthly discussion of the state of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. La Niña is still projected to prevail during 2024-25, but the slower-than-expected pace of development thus far has chipped away slightly at the probabilities in the most recent forecasts.

According to the official NOAA probabilistic forecast issued July 11, which is based on expert judgment drawing from observations and model data, there is now a 70{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71} chance of La Niña conditions developing by August-September-October, down slightly from 75{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71} odds for the same period in the forecast issued last month. La Niña conditions are expected to persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2024-2025, with a 79{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71} chance during November-January, again down slightly from 85{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71} in the prior forecast.

A separate joint outlook from NOAA and Columbia University’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society, which is issued in the later part of each month and based purely on model simulations, has been somewhat less bullish on La Niña. For the climatological peak of the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season (August-September-October), the mid-June NOAA/IRI forecast called for a 44{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71} chance of La Niña, a 51{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71} chance of ENSO-neutral, and a mere 5{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71} chance of El Niño. A month earlier, those numbers were 49{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71}, 44{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71}, and 7{2add217ad2235d262e63a186eb2903fa1b3aade4b9d8db7a510444e5d82aac71}.

El Niño conditions tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity through an increase in wind shear, but La Niña conditions tend to have the opposite effect.

Arctic sea ice: 12th-lowest June extent on record

Arctic sea ice extent during June 2024 was the 12th-lowest in the 46-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, or NSIDC. The Arctic had its seventh-warmest June on record. Antarctic sea ice extent in June was the second-lowest on record, well below all other years except for 2023. The Antarctic region had near-average temperatures in June.

Notable global heat and cold marks for June 2024

The information below is courtesy of Maximiliano Herrera. Follow him on Twitter @extremetemps:

• Hottest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: 53.1°C (127.6°F) at Jahra, Kuwait, June 23;
• Coldest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: -33.9°C (-29.0°F) at Summit, Greenland, June 2;
• Hottest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: 38.9°C (102.0°F) at Carolina, Brazil, June 29; and
• Coldest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: -79.6°C (-111.3°F) at Concordia, Antarctica, June 28.

Major weather stations in June: 26 all-time heat records, one all-time cold record

Among global stations with a record of at least 40 years, 26 set, not just tied, an all-time heat record in June; one station set an all-time cold record:

Koror (Palau) max. 35.6°C, June 2: New national record high for Palau;
Assuan (Egypt) max. 50.9°C, June 7: New national record high for Egypt;
Empalme (Mexico) max. 47.6°C, June 12;
Fenyang (China) max. 40.2°C, June 12;
Wenxian (China) max. 43.4°C, June 13;
Yanshan (China) max. 41.4°C, June 13;
Wudi (China) max. 41.6°C, June 13;
Leling (China) max. 41.2°C, June 13;
Qingyun (China) max. 41.1°C, June 13;
Yangxing (China) max. 41.0°C, June 13;
Binzhou (China) max. 41.0°C, June 13;
Lijin (China) max. 40.7°C, June 13;
Houma (China) max. 42.1°C, June 13;
Yuanqu (China) max. 41.8°C, June 13;
Quxo (China) max. 41.7°C, June 13;
Xiangfen (China) max. 41.0°C, June 13;
Jincheng (China) max. 39.0°C, June 13;
Jiaokou (China) max. 35.5 13 June
Milos Airport (Greece) max. 44.0°C, June 13;
Makkah (Saudi Arabia) max. 51.8°C, June 17;
Hidalgo del Parral (Mexico) max. 42.0°C, June 17;
Chihuahua (Mexico) max. 43.1°C, June 17;
Bathurst (Canada) max. 37.6°C, June 19;
Saint John (Canada) max. 35.1°C, June 20;
Smithton (Australia) min -4.5°C, June 20;
Verhnjaja Gutara (Russia) max. 36.5°C, June 30; and
Pirovskoe (Russia) max. 35.4°C, June 30.

Fourteen all-time national/territorial heat records beaten or tied as of the end of June

Cocos Islands (Australia): 32.8°C (91.0°F), Feb. 28, Feb. 29, Apr. 7 (tie);
Costa Rica: 41.0°C (105.8°F) at Cerro Huacalito, Mar. 6; broken again with 41.5°C, Mar. 23, at the same location;
Comoros: 36.2°C (97.2°F) at Hahaya Airport, Mar. 12;
Congo Brazzaville: 39.6°C (103.3°F) at Impfondo, Mar. 13;
Maldives: 35.1°C (95.2°F) at Hanimadhoo, Mar. 24; tied at the same location on Apr. 11;
Togo: 44.0°C (111.2°F) at Mango, Mar. 31;
Mali: 48.5°C (119.3°F) at Kayes, Apr. 3;
Belize: 42.3°C (108.1°F) at Barton Creek, Apr. 10; tied on May 17 at Chaa Creek;
Chad: 48.0°C (118.4°F) at Faya, Apr. 24; tied on Jun. 5 at the same loction;
Cambodia: 42.8°C (109.0°F) at Preah Viehar and Svay Leu, Apr. 27;
Laos: 43.7°C (110.7°F) at Tha Ngon, May 1; (3rd time that the previous all-time record was beaten in 2024);
Ghana: 44.6°C (112.3°F) at Navrongo, May 1; and
Palau: 35.0°C (95.0°F) at Babelthuap Int. Airport, May 29 (tie); beaten again with (Palau) max. 35.6°C at Koror on Jun. 2; and
Egypt: 50.9°C (123.6°F) at Assuan, Jun. 7.

One hundred twenty-nine additional monthly national/territorial heat records beaten or tied as of the end of June

In addition to the 14 all-time national/territorial records set so far in 2024 (plus five nations that tied or broke their all-time record in multiple months), 129 nations or territories have set or tied monthly all-time heat records as of the end of June 2024, for a total of 148 such records:

• Jan. (15): Mayotte, Dominica, Saba, Cocos Islands, Malta, Hong Kong, Ivory Coast, Maldives, Andorra, Portugal, Costa Rica, UK, Seychelles, Martinique, St. Barthelemy
• Feb. (18): Maldives, French Guiana, Guyana, Dominica, Curacao, St. Kitts and Nevis, Antigua and Barbuda, U.S. Virgin Islands, Belize, North Korea, Morocco, French Southern Territories, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Peru, Laos, Chad, Togo
• Mar. (24): Paraguay, Samoa, Zimbabwe, Dominica, Cameroon, Ghana, Guyana, French Guiana, Dominican Republic, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Saba, British Indian Ocean Territories, Solomon Islands, Suriname, Guatemala, Croatia, Poland, Belarus, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Benin, Burkina Faso
• Apr. (28): Dominica, French Southern Territories, Costa Rica, French Polynesia, French Guiana, Guyana, Mauritania, Ivory Coast, Saba, Comoros, British Indian Ocean Territories, Mauritius, China, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia, Cape Verde, Nepal, Zimbabwe, Cyprus, Turkey, Niger, Jordan, Israel, Vietnam, Colombia, St. Barthelemy, Laos
• May (20): Sri Lanka, Mauritius, Tuvalu, Ivory Coast, Dominica, Niue, Brazil, Martinique, Maldives, Costa Rica, Mexico, Belize, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Saba, Cocos Islands, Niger, Kuwait, Iraq, St. Eustatius
• Jun. (24): French Southern Territories, Guatemala, Aruba, Curacao, Cyprus, Zimbabwe, Comoros, Grenada, St Eustatius, North Korea, New Zealand, Dominica, Cocos Islands, Costa Rica, Mauritius, Martinique, Taiwan, Paraguay, Algeria, Turkey, St Pierre and Miquelon, Kuwait, China, French Guiana

Two monthly national/territorial cold records beaten or tied as of the end of June

China set an all-time cold record for the month of February.
Qatar set an all-time cold record for the month of March.

Hemispherical and continental temperature records in 2024

• Highest minimum temperature ever recorded in January in Asia: 28.5°C (83.3°F) at Bangkok Klong Thoey, Thailand, Jan. 14
• Highest minimum temperature ever recorded in February in Asia: 29.1°C (84.1°F) at Diego Garcia (British Indian Territories), Feb. 18
• Highest minimum temperature ever recorded in March in South America: 31.6°C (88.9°F) at Mariscal Estigarribia, Paraguay, Mar. 17
• Highest temperature ever recorded in April in Africa: 48.5°C (119.3°F) at Kayes, Mali, Apr. 3
• Highest temperature ever recorded in May in North America: 51.1°C (124.0°F) at Gallinas, Mexico, May 9
• Highest minimum temperature ever recorded in May in the Southern Hemisphere: 29.7°C (85.5°F) at Funafuti, Tuvalu, May 21
• Highest temperature ever recorded in June in Africa: 50.9°C (123.6°F) at Assuan, Egypt, Jun. 7
• Highest minimum temperature ever recorded in June in the Southern Hemisphere: 29.3°C (84.7°F) at Funafuti, Tuvalu, Jun. 18