COP29 hasn’t made enough progress on methane and the clock is ticking – Inside track

This post is by Lord Duncan of Springbank, deputy speaker in the House of Lords

As the season of mists and mellow fruitfulness hoves into view, it can mean but one thing, the UN Climate Change clamjamfry, or COP29 as it’s formally known, has convened in an attempt once more to corral a global coalition into reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and taming the rise in global warming at 1.5°C.

To date, carbon dioxide has been the principal focus of climate action, since CO₂ can hang around the atmosphere for hundreds of years. However, our efforts to reduce global CO₂ emissions have been unsuccessful. Peak carbon is always hovering on the horizon, like the end of a tantalisingly close rainbow. Progress on carbon reduction will come, if it comes at all, dropping slow.

Cutting methane buys vital time on carbon reduction
Whilst carbon remains the principal focus, the question for COP29 will be whether progress can be made on the reduction of methane, a fellow greenhouse gas. Methane is a powerful but short-lived atmospheric gas with an impact some 80 times greater than CO₂ over 20 years and is responsible for approximately a third of global warming. Its residence time in the atmosphere is measured in decades rather than centuries. The UN has stated that cutting methane by 45 per cent by 2030 could prevent nearly 0.3°C of warming by the 2040s, delaying short term warming and avoiding dangerous climate tipping points. Significant reductions in methane emissions can buy vital time for progress on carbon dioxide reduction. Though Ed Miliband pointed out this week, “carbon is the marathon, methane is the sprint”. it was perhaps not surprising that no new domestic action was announced at COP’s methane summit. The UK has reached the more challenging and more costly stage of methane mitigation.

The UK government at the 2021 Glasgow COP initiated the Global Methane Pledge, an attempt to reduce global methane emissions by at least 30 per cent by 2030, against a 2020 baseline. Over the past two decades methane emissions have risen by 20 per cent, with the trend accelerating in the past five years. Whilst signatories to the pledge now account for almost 50 per cent of methane emissions, of the big five emitters: China (15 per cent), US (nine per cent), India (eight per cent), Russia (six per cent) and Brazil (six per cent), only the US and Brazil have added their names to the document.

It is perhaps fitting that the setting for international methane progress has been Azerbaijan for, as the eagle-eyed delegates wandering the streets will have seen, Baku city’s coat of arms – three methane flames dancing against a field of blue – is to be found on all public buildings. Indeed, so common were natural methane flares in the region that they became a subject of worship amongst the Zoroastrian religion, who saw in the twisting flames a symbol of the divine.  Azerbaijan did sign up to the Global Methane Pledge ahead of its presidency, whilst simultaneously venting methane from the outskirts of its capital. A reminder that there is a gulf between signing a pledge and delivering change.

Global champions of action are falling away
The road to reducing methane emissions will not be easy. Just as at Paris in 2015, much was expected to hinge upon bilateral negotiations between the US and China, the two principal emitters. However the US election almost certainly paid to that. Official champions Germany and the European Union were also missing in action at COP29.

The role of the UK may well be significant in the methane reduction efforts for two reasons: London is an important financial hub; and the UK has walked the walk, reducing methane emissions by 62 per cent since 1990. Although progress of late has slowed.

COP29 has become known as the ‘Finance COP,’ since it will attempt to secure a new global climate finance target. The previous UK government said it would spend £11.6 billion in international climate finance up to 2026, a pledge which will be honoured by this government. It remains to be seen how the global financial players in the City of London will be leveraged.

The UK should identify where it can make more progress
The UK has managed to reduce its overall methane emissions by almost two thirds, primarily through a combination of innovative waste management and the closure of its coal mines. However, the journey hereafter will be more challenging and more costly. The task of the new UK government will be to identify and quantify where further progress can be made. Adopting a methane action plan should be the first step.

With COP slowly drawing to an unsatisfactory close, what next for methane mitigation? It is clear that signing a pledge can deliver real change only if it is matched with concrete, realistic and affordable mitigation measures. It is also clear that a pledge without the signatures of those states responsible for the biggest contribution to methane emissions cannot be the whole answer. Perhaps it is here, as other global leaders retire to the dressing room, that the UK can make a difference. After all, the UK has achieved the most significant methane reductions of any comparable advanced economy.  The UK has much to advocate in terms of waste management. It is also a global leader in deploying serious science to address methane emissions, notably in terms of pin point monitoring, developing methane retardant agri-feed sources and handling farm waste.  Though slow to limit venting and flaring in the hydrocarbon sector, new rules will be in place by 2030.

Despite a lot of hot air around methane, will we see more progress by the end of the UN gathering? Time will tell, but the clock is ticking. A glance at the headlines from across the globe regarding ‘natural’ disasters suggests we are already on borrowed time.