Skeptical Science New Research for Week #44 2024

Climate change & geopolitics

The politics of countering climate change in Southeast Asia, Putra, Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1486796

Other

Long-term variabilities in thermal structure, CO₂ concentration and associated cooling rates in the Earth’s middle atmosphere: Observations and model simulations, Pramitha et al., Journal of Atmospheric and Solar Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.jastp.2023.106070

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

A 10-point plan to scale up renewable energy in the Global South, Fankhauser et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2418948

Editorial: Institutional forces, energy transition, and climate action: strategies for achieving sustainable development goals 7 & 13, Ahmad et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1357229

Editorial: Natural methane emissions in a changing arctic – implications for climate and environment, Andreassen et al., Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access 10.3389/feart.2024.1508196

Forest definitions require a re-think, Zalles et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01779-9

How to be an effective Boundary Spanner between energy policy and energy Social Sciences & Humanities communities, Foulds et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103581

Integrating Values to Improve the Relevance of Climate-Risk Research, Helgeson et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2022ef003025

Long-term changes of agricultural land over the last century in Romania. The showcase of Romanian plain, Ur?anu (Popovici) et al., Anthropocene 10.1016/j.ancene.2024.100449

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Renewables On The Rise Dashboard, Johanna Neumann and Tony Dutzik, ica Research and Policy CenteEnvironment Amerr

America produces more than three times as much power from the sun, the wind, and the earth as we did in 2014, with growth in all 50 states. Key technologies such as electric vehicles and battery storage are also booming – helping to repower America with clean energy. The Renewables on the Rise dashboard allows a user to track the growth of clean energy in your state and around the country. Explore a state’s clean energy progress, then read below for more information on the rise in renewables … and what local and state governments can do to help accelerate the transition to clean energy.

Colorado Auto Outlook, Colorado Automobile Dealers Association

More than 23 percent of new cars registered in Colorado from January through September were either battery-electric or plug-in hybrid models, putting Colorado second only to California nationwide in EV market share. Washington and Oregon follow in third and fourth place.

Economic Planning for the Clean Energy Transition: Illuminating the Challenges of Tomorrow’s Grid, ISO New England

The Economic Planning for the Clean Energy Transition (EPCET) study is the culmination of ISO New England’s lessons learned in the economic study process over the last several years. This wide-ranging, rigorous analysis highlights many of the potential economic challenges of the clean energy transition and is supported by 33 published scenarios and more than 2,800 simulations, presenting a comprehensive vision of what tomorrow’s grid might look like. The authors identify trends the region should consider to ensure power system reliability, progress toward state decarbonization goals, and informed decision-making about efficient spending and investment.

Key Developments in European Gas Wholesale Markets, European Union Agency for hte Cooperation of Energy Regulators

The authors provide an overview of European Union wholesale gas market trends in the third quarter of 2024. Specifically, they address gas price evolution and drivers; gas consumption and its components; gas supply trends; Gas infrastructure utilization; and gas trading developments. They also consider the evolution of gas transmission tariffs and their effects on wholesale price formation.

Uncommon Wealth: Fossil Fuel Expansion in the Commonwealth Dominated by Three Countries, Johnny West, Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative

The author examines Commonwealth countries’ historical and potential future development of fossil fuel production, contextualizing those developments in terms of associated CO2 equivalent (CO2eq) emissions and the relative importance and risk of those developments to the producing Commonwealth country.

Keeping the Promise, United Nations Environment Programme

Last year was one of broken records and broken promises. There were new highs of greenhouse gas emissions, temperature records tumbling and climate impacts arriving stronger and faster. The finance to help vulnerable communities adapt to climate change isn’t being delivered. At the same time, most of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are off track at the halfway point of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. The upside is that the global response to the triple planetary crisis intensified. Efforts to combat pollution and waste received a shot in the arm with the agreement of the Global Framework on Chemicals and progress on the global instrument on plastic pollution, which should be ready by 2024. Nations adopted a treaty to protect biodiversity in the ocean beyond national borders, while key guidelines to help the private sector reduce its impact on nature were released. Finally, the United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP28, delivered a clear call on countries to transition away from fossil fuels.

Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air … please! With a massive gap between rhetoric and reality, countries draft new climate commitments, Olhoff et al., United Nations Environment Programme

The authors look at how much nations must promise to cut off greenhouse gases and deliver, in the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), due for submission in early 2025 ahead of COP30. Cuts of 42 percent are needed by 2030 and 57 percent by 2035 to get on track for 1.5°C. A failure to increase ambition in these new NDCs and start delivering immediately would put the world on course for a temperature increase of 2.6-3.1°C over this century. This would bring debilitating impacts to people, the planet, and economies.

Operationalising the Quad: Maritime security and climate change in the Indo-Pacific, Kate Clayton, United States Study Centre

The author advances the case for enhanced Quad cooperation on maritime security and climate change. Climate change exacerbates prevailing maritime security challenges, including illegal fishing, natural disasters, piracy, and maritime boundary issues. As the effects of climate change are not bound by state or maritime boundaries, a coordinated, multilateral approach to maritime security and resulting challenges across the Indo-Pacific is needed from middle and major powers in the region. The Quad’s comprehensive approach to non-traditional security and existing whole-of-region initiatives provide a strong basis for enhanced cooperation on interrelated security challenges. Increasing its attention on maritime security and climate change issues will help operationalize the Quad’s agenda, streamlining Quad programs to focus on achievable and inclusive initiatives that strengthen Indo-Pacific security. To combat criticisms of the Quad as a ‘talk shop,’ the partnership should focus on providing a platform for regional institutions to convene and coordinate and deliver public goods consistent with the region’s needs.

Landscape of Climate Finance in Africa 2024, Meattle et al., Climate Policy Initiative

The case for climate investment in Africa is compelling across three dimensions: unlocking vast economic opportunities, avoiding severe economic losses, and minimizing catastrophic social and developmental consequences. Without immediate action, future costs of responding to the climate crisis in Africa will far exceed current climate finance needs. The cost of not acting is already estimated to reach 20% of the continent’s GDP by 2050 and to rise as high as 64% to 80% by 2100. And these economic losses are only the tip of the iceberg. The broader social costs—such as increased food insecurity and hunger, mortality and morbidity from heat and infectious disease, loss of nature and biodiversity, and increased conflict and migration—are not adequately accounted for.

Islands at the edge: How climate shocks shape poverty in Small Island Developing States , Panwar et al., ODI

The cumulative impacts of climate shocks, which are frequent in Small Island Developing States (SIDS), lead to a deterioration in standards of living, limiting people’s ability to endure future shocks and trapping them in cycles of poverty. A total of 20.7 million people are poor or vulnerable to falling into poverty in the 22 SIDS for which data are available. This represents one-third of the population. The proportion of people in low- and lower-middle-income countries who are poor and vulnerable to poverty is significantly higher in SIDS (72%) than in non-SIDS (42%). SIDS receives lower levels of international development finance for reducing poverty and hunger than other groups of countries. This is stalling progress towards SDG targets on poverty and hunger reduction.

Working together for better climate action, Huitron et al., UN Trade and Development, the World Trade Organization, the International Monetary Fund, the Organisation for Economic and Co-operation for Development and the World Bank

The authors stress the need to step up climate action to meet global emission reduction targets while contributing to broader development goals. They make four important contributions including providing a common understanding of carbon pricing metrics to improve transparency on how countries are shifting incentives for decarbonization; examining the composition of climate change mitigation policies, and emphasizing the important role of carbon pricing as a cost-effective instrument that also raises revenues; outlining how international organizations can support the coordination of policies to foster positive and limit negative cross-border spillovers from climate change mitigation policies; and analysing the advantages and disadvantages of carbon border adjustment policies, including their impact on developing countries.

Climate Change and Human Migration An Earth Systems Science Perspective: Proceedings of a Workshop, National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

Earth systems science aims to discover and integrate knowledge on the structure, nature, and scales of interactions among natural (e.g., physical, chemical, and biological) and social (e.g., cultural, socioeconomic, and geopolitical) processes. Climate-related migration can be temporary or permanent, can involve internal displacement within countries or crossing international borders, and can involve a broad array of other direct and indirect drivers. To explore how an Earth systems science approach may be used to address climate change impacts and the consequent influence on human migration, the National Academies hosted a workshop, Climate Change and Human Migration: An Earth Systems Science Perspective, on March 18-19, 2024. Workshop presentations focused on the data, methods, and research strategies relevant to understanding climate-related migration. This publication summarizes the presentations and discussion of the workshop.

Carbon Inequality Kills. Why curbing the excessive emissions of an elite few can create a sustainable planet for all, Alestig et al., Oxfam

The only way to beat climate breakdown and deliver social justice is to radically reduce inequality. The authors reveal the catastrophic climate impacts of the richest individuals in the world and propose taking urgent action to protect people and the planet. What little carbon dioxide we can still safely emit is being burned indiscriminately by the superrich. The authors share new evidence of how the yachts, jets, and polluting investments of 50 of the world’s richest billionaires are accelerating the climate crisis. The research shows that the emissions of the world’s super-rich 1% are causing economic losses of trillions of dollars; contributing to huge crop losses; and leading to millions of excess deaths. As global temperatures continue to rise, risking the lives and livelihoods of people living in poverty and precarity, we must act now to curb the emissions of the super-rich and make rich polluters pay.

The State of Greenhouse Gases in the Atmosphere Based on Global Observations through 2023, Crotwell et al., World Meteorological Organization

The bulletin is the latest analysis of observations from the WMO GAW Programme. It shows globally averaged surface mole fractions for carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) and compares them with the mole fractions during the previous year and with the preindustrial levels. It also provides insights into the change in radiative forcing by long-lived GHGs and the contribution of individual gases to this increase. From 2022 to 2023, the annual mean CO2 in the global surface atmosphere increased by 2.3 ppm. This increase marked the twelfth consecutive year with an increase greater than 2 ppm, continuing an already significant trend. CO2 is accumulating in the atmosphere faster than at any time during human existence. The current atmospheric CO2 level is already 51% above that of the pre-industrial (before 1750) era.

3Q 2024 Market Update, Crux

The market for transferable tax credits remained strong in 3Q2024 and demonstrated increasing depth, breadth, and liquidity. Five key observations include the following. The market’s transaction volume surged to $7.5 billion in Q3, bringing the year-to-date total to $16.5-18.5 billion on track to its projected $22-$25 billion; wind, solar, and storage technologies, while still dominant, represented a smaller portion of deals (75% in Q3) compared to previous quarters, with newer technologies such as advanced manufacturing (Section 45X) and nuclear (Section 45U) claiming more market share; the authors observed an increase in buyer interest in forward commitments for 2025 tax credits, with 36% of bids including a forward component, up from 15% in Q1.8; the renewable energy sector continues to grow rapidly, with solar energy alone accounting for a projected 30 GW of new capacity by the end of 2024; finally, the increasing competition and liquidity in the market have led to faster transaction timelines, with 66% of production tax credit deals closing within six weeks of bid acceptance.

Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

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How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn’t to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers’ impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

• Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a “yes” to this automatically. 
• Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week’s 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to “preprint” versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we’ll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as “preprint.”

The section “Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives” includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of “perspectives,” observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

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