Skeptical Science New Research for Week #42 2024

The role of forestry sciences in combating climate change and advancing sustainable development goals, Raman et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2024.1409667

Theory and the future of land-climate science, Byrne et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-024-01553-8

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Navigating climate action: Assessing the economic impacts and trade-offs of a shipping carbon tax for African states, Ogbugo et al., African Policy Research Institute

The International Maritime Organization (IMO), the entity responsible for regulating international shipping, has committed to cutting emissions from shipping to net zero by around 2050. The authors look at some of the candidate mid-term measures under discussion at the IMO and the likely impacts they will have on African economies. The authors also examine which issues need to be addressed for especially developing countries if the implementation of the measures is to be supported, as well as what opportunities there might be to trade off costs against benefits if the planned economic measures materialize.

The Dirty Truth About Utility Climate Pledges 2024, Cara Fogle and Noah Ver Beek, Sierra Club

The next decade is critical to averting the worst impacts of the climate crisis and transforming the U.S. economy to run entirely on clean energy. Studies show that to meet these climate goals utilities must retire all their coal plants by 2030, abandon plans to build gas plants, and aggressively build out renewable energy resources over the next 10 years. Despite this pressing deadline, utilities are either not moving fast enough toward these goals, or not moving at all. Dozens of utilities may have pledged to become “carbon neutral” by 2050, but the author’s research shows that those pledges are largely greenwashing. Most utilities in the United States lack the truly ambitious pledges and plans needed to make the clean energy transition a reality.

Climate change key driver of catastrophic impacts of Hurricane Helene that devastated both coastal and inland communities, Clarke, World Weather Attribution

Late on September 26th, Hurricane Helene made landfall at category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson scale on the panhandle of Florida, bringing high winds, extreme rainfall, and storm surges to coastal areas. In today’s climate, that has already been warmed by 1.3 °C due primarily to the burning of fossil fuels, weather observations indicate that rainfall events as severe as those brought by hurricane Helene now occur about once every 7 (3 – 25) years in the coastal region, and about once every 70 (20 – 3000) years in the inland region. To determine the role of climate change in rainfall we combine observations with climate models. In both regions, the rainfall was about 10% heavier due to climate change, and equivalently the rainfall totals over the 2-day and 3-day maxima were made about 40% and 70% more likely by climate change, respectively.

Global Hunger Index, Wiemers et al, Welthungerhilfe and Concern Worldwide

With the 2030 target date for achieving Zero Hunger fast approaching, the 2024 Global Hunger Index (GHI) makes it starkly clear that the world is far from meeting that critical goal. The realization of the right to adequate food is out of reach for billions of people. Progress in reducing all four GHI indicators—undernourishment, child stunting, child wasting, and child mortality—is falling short of internationally agreed targets. Many countries and territories are experiencing unprecedented levels of acute food insecurity, with potentially dire implications for their long-term development.

Public Financial Support for Renewable Power Generation and Integration in the G20 Countries, Laan et al., International Institute for Sustainable Development

In 2023, the G20 committed to “pursue and encourage efforts to triple renewable energy capacity globally” (G20 Leaders, 2023), a pledge taken up by 198 UNFCCC parties later that year. The world is not on track to achieve the goal despite record capacity additions in 2023. Currently, global renewable power capacity is projected to increase by only 2.5 times by 2030. Achieving the tripling target will require total investments—public and private—in renewable power capacity, grids, and storage to at least double from 2023 levels of around USD 1.1 trillion per year.

Private Equity Climate Risks, Duong et al., Americans for Financial Reform Education Fund, Global Energy Monitor, and Private Equity Stakeholder Project

Private equity continues to transform the financial markets and the daily lives of communities around the globe. With over a trillion dollars in energy investments generating high greenhouse gas emissions and minimal public visibility, private equity firms play an outsized role in accelerating the climate crisis. New research for this edition of the scorecard reveals just how high the industry’s fossil fuel emissions are. The private equity energy portfolios covered in this report are responsible for an estimated, combined total of 1.17 gigatons of annual emissions. This figure equals 1.17 billion metric tons CO2 equivalent (CO2e) and is limited to the three categories covered in the scope of this research: upstream, liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals, and coal plants, and does not represent the firms’ entire emissions footprint from energy investments. In the US alone, there were 28 weather and climate disasters in 2023, resulting in at least $92.9 billion in disaster damages, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information. The need for transparency, accountability, and a just transition to a clean energy economy has never been more urgent.

Procuring With Purpose: Canada’s Opportunity to Shape the Carbon Removal Market, Carbon Removal Canada

Canada now has a unique opportunity to leverage the combined purchasing power of public and private markets to support the carbon removal industry through procurement. The Canadian government, in its April 2024 federal budget, has signaled its interest in procurement by expanding the scope of the Low-carbon Fuel Procurement Program to include the purchase of carbon removal. This announcement created one of the world’s first formal government procurement initiatives for carbon removal, enabling Canada to create an industry-defining program and shape the carbon removal market. As the Government of Canada works to develop and implement a program, it should seek to attract other public and private sector buyers into the market to establish similar procurement efforts. However, success in the carbon removal market through procurement is not guaranteed, and the authors seek to recommend design elements that can help maximize positive impact

The security blind spot: Cascading climate impacts and tipping points threaten national security, Laybourn et al., Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs, The Global Systems Institute, the Institute for Public Policy Research, and The Strategic Climate Risks Initiative

The new UK government has initiated a Strategic Defence Review and is undertaking a review of national resilience. Security threats resulting from climate change should be at the core of the government’s approach. These threats have been consistently and significantly underestimated and now pose major security risks. Recent governments have not considered climate change a priority national security issue. Climate-security threats are non-linear and are escalating, posing profound challenges to national and international security. escalate.

2024 Living Planet Report. A System in Peril, WWF

The bi-annual report functions as a check-up on the health of the Earth. Underpinning the report is the Living Planet Index, which monitors populations of mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians, and fish around the world. This year the report found that monitored wildlife populations declined by an average of 73% since 1970. Importantly, this year’s report also reveals that the Earth stands on the verge of tipping points for tropical forests and coral reefs that could have severe consequences for people and nature everywhere

2024 Electric Report, Laszlo von Lazar and Jim Doull, Black and Veatch

The authors, drawing upon expert analyses of a survey of nearly 700 U.S. energy industry stakeholders – tell the story of an electric industry navigating a sea of challenges, e.g., data centers and cyber security, along with great opportunity, always mindful that in many ways it is a matter of budgets and funding.

Top 50 Banks In The World Tackling Adaptation – 2024, Woodall et al., Climate X and Climate Proof

The authors present a first-of-its-kind ranking of 50 of the world’s largest commercial banks by climate adaptation maturity. Development finance institutions and multilateral development banks are out of scope. This provides a high-level overview of the relative performance of lenders against a series of 17 qualitative indicators, covering how banks think about, act on, and track various climate adaptation efforts. By assessing these indicators, the authors determined how banks are integrating climate adaptation considerations into their frameworks and identifying trends, regional disparities, and best practices. The analysis reveals that most banks exhibit a low level of engagement with climate adaptation. No bank met more than 12 of the 17 indicators, and all but seven banks met less than half of the indicators.

Leaders or Laggards? Analyzing major US banks’ net-zero commitments, Sierra Club

The six major US banks — JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citi, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley — have committed to reaching net-zero emissions across their financial portfolios by 2050. While those long-term goals are laudable, they are also the bare minimum for climate action and risk mitigation; what is most important now is the rapid, robust, and transparent implementation of those commitments. The authors aim to capture key elements of that implementation by examining the near-term emissions targets, exclusion policies, and climate-related disclosures of the six major US banks. Though the banks have published climate targets, policies, and disclosures across a range of sectors, the scope of this report is mainly focused on those practices for the fossil fuel sector, as the principal driver of the climate crisis and an outsized source of related financial risks.

Energy Transition Outlook 2024, Irvine et al., Det Norske Veritas

The authors see some developments speeding up the energy transition and others slowing it down. The massive shift to renewables is unstoppable, but too slow to meet global climate goals. 2024 is likely to be the year of peak emissions. Rapid growth of solar PV and batteries is likely to occur, with slower developments in carbon capture and sequestration and hydrogen. Chinese clean tech speeds up the transition but faces a tariff backlash.

Utility-Scale Solar, 2024 Edition, Seel et al., Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

The authors present their analysis of empirical plant-level data from the U.S. fleet of ground-mounted photovoltaic (PV), PV+battery, and concentrating solar-thermal power (CSP) plants with capacities exceeding 5 MW. While focused on key developments in 2023, the authors explore trends in deployment, technology, capital and operating costs, capacity factors, the levelized cost of solar energy (LCOE), power purchase agreement (PPA) prices, wholesale market value, health and climate benefits, and interconnection queues.

Future Risks Reports, Axa

The authors explore the perceptions and concerns of both experts and the general public amid a rapidly evolving risk landscape in the UK and globally. They found that 77% of experts and 55% of the general public in the UK believe that risks are becoming increasingly interconnected. Geopolitical tensions caused by the situation in the Middle East and the war between Russia and Ukraine have led to a rise in concern about the likelihood of future conflict and the potential ripple effect across security, financial and energy markets, and cyberinfrastructure. However, only 15% of experts in the UK have confidence in the Government’s ability to mitigate and address geopolitical instability, highlighting a lack of faith in the Government’s readiness to address evolving threats. Climate change remains the most prominent concern for both UK experts and the general public, highlighting the urgent need to address its impacts and build resilience. As with geopolitical instability, confidence in the Government’s ability to manage and mitigate its effects is low and has dropped significantly from last year, with only 5% of experts responding positively compared to 22% in 2023.

Florida Climate Survey – September 2024, Polsky et al., Florida Atlantic University

Most Floridians are more likely to support candidates who fight climate change: 52% agree with the statement: “A candidate’s political record reducing the impacts of climate change would make me more likely to vote for that candidate.” There were differences based on the political parties of the respondents on the above question – 74% of Democrats agree with the statement, as compared to 35% of Republicans and 39% of respondents reporting no party affiliation. A large majority of Floridians support using more renewable energy in the state: 75% agree with the statement, “Florida should diversify its energy sources to include more electricity produced by renewable sources.” There was strong support across party lines with the above statement: 87% of Democrats agree, 68% of Republicans, and 66% of respondents reporting no party affiliation. Most Floridians are worried about the impact of climate change on insurance: 58% agree with the statement, “Climate change has me concerned about being able to afford and maintain my homeowner’s insurance in Florida.”

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How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

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The objective of New Research isn’t to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers’ impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

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