Skeptical Science New Research for Week #40 2024
Posted on 3 October 2024 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Sloth metabolism may make survival untenable under climate change scenarios, Cliffe et al., PeerJ:
Sloths are limited by the rate at which they can acquire energy and are unable to regulate core body temperature (Tb) to the extent seen in most mammals. Therefore, the metabolic impacts of climate change on sloths are expected to be profound. Here we use indirect calorimetry to measure the oxygen consumption (VO2) and Tb of highland and lowland two-fingered sloths (Choloepus hoffmanni) when exposed to a range of different ambient temperatures (Ta) (18 °C –34 °C), and additionally record changes in Tb and posture over several days in response to natural fluctuations in Ta. We use the resultant data to predict the impact of future climate change on the metabolic rate and Tb of the different sloth populations. The metabolic responses of sloths originating from the two sites differed at high Ta’s, with lowland sloths invoking metabolic depression as temperatures rose above their apparent ‘thermally-active zone’ (TAZ), whereas highland sloths showed increased RMR. Based on climate change estimates for the year 2100, we predict that high-altitude sloths are likely to experience a substantial increase in metabolic rate which, due to their intrinsic energy processing limitations and restricted geographical plasticity, may make their survival untenable in a warming climate.
Temperature-Driven Dengue Transmission in a Changing Climate: Patterns, Trends, and Future Projections, Feng et al., GeoHealth:
We analyzed dengue incidence trends and the relationship between annual mean minimum temperatures (AMMTs) and dengue incidence rates from 1990 to 2019 in 122 countries using the Global Burden of Disease and TerraClimate data sets. We also projected global dengue incidence rates under different carbon emission scenarios using temperature data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) data set. Our results reveal a significant increase in global dengue cases from 1990 to 2019 and a positive correlation between temperature and dengue incidence. The association between AMMT and dengue incidence strengthened at temperatures exceeding 21°C. Central and eastern sub-Saharan Africa, as well as Oceania, were identified as the regions most sensitive to dengue; males and individuals aged 15–19 or 70–84 years were the most susceptible to dengue under rising temperatures. Our projections suggest that global dengue incidence will substantially increase by 2050 and 2100. By 2100, regions including Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, the southern United States, southern China, and island countries in the Pacific and Indian Oceans are projected to become year-round dengue-endemic under a high-emission climate scenario.
Inverse modeling of 2010–2022 satellite observations shows that inundation of the wet tropics drove the 2020–2022 methane surge, Qu et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences:
Atmospheric methane concentrations rose rapidly over the past decade and surged in 2020–2022 but the causes have been unclear. We find from inverse analysis of GOSAT satellite observations that emissions from the wet tropics drove the 2010–2019 increase and the subsequent 2020–2022 surge, while emissions from northern mid-latitudes decreased. The 2020–2022 surge is principally contributed by emissions in Equatorial Asia (43%) and Africa (30%). Wetlands are the major drivers of the 2020–2022 emission increases in Africa and Equatorial Asia because of tropical inundation associated with La Niña conditions, consistent with trends in the GRACE terrestrial water storage data. In contrast, emissions from major anthropogenic emitters such as the United States, Russia, and China are relatively flat over 2010–2022. Concentrations of tropospheric OH (the main methane sink) show no long-term trend over 2010–2022 but a decrease over 2020–2022 that contributed to the methane surge.
Geospatial assessment of the cost and energy demand of feedstock grinding for enhanced rock weathering in the coterminous United States, Li et al., Frontiers in Climate:
Enhanced rock weathering (ERW)—the artificial enhancement of chemical weathering of rocks to accelerate atmospheric CO2 capture—is now widely seen as a potentially promising carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategy that could help to achieve U.S. climate goals. Grinding rocks to smaller particle size, which can help to facilitate more rapid and efficient CO2 removal, is the most energy-demanding and cost-intensive step in the ERW life cycle. As a result, accurate life cycle analysis of ERW requires regional constraints on the factors influencing the energetic and economic demands of feedstock grinding for ERW. Here, we perform a state-level geospatial analysis to quantify how carbon footprints, costs, and energy demands vary among regions of the coterminous U.S. in relation to particle size and regional electricity mix. We find that CO2 emissions from the grinding process are regionally variable but relatively small compared to the CDR potential of ERW… Overall energy requirements for grinding are also modest, with the demand for grinding 1 Gt of feedstock representing less than 2% of annual national electricity supply. In addition, both cost and overall energy demand are projected to decline over time. These results suggest that incorporating feedstock grinding into ERW deployment at scale in the coterminous U.S. should generally have only modest impacts on lifecycle emissions, cost-effectiveness, and energy efficiency.
Accelerating transmission capacity expansion by using advanced conductors in existing right-of-way, Chojkiewicz et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences:
As countries pursue decarbonization goals, the rapid expansion of transmission capacity for renewable energy (RE) integration poses a significant challenge due to hurdles such as permitting and cost allocation. However, we find that large-scale reconductoring with advanced composite-core conductors can cost-effectively double transmission capacity within existing right-of-way, with limited additional permitting. This strategy unlocks a high availability of increasingly economically viable RE resources in close proximity to the existing network. We implement reconductoring in a model of the US power system, showing that reconductoring can help meet over 80% of the new interzonal transmission needed to reach over 90% clean electricity by 2035 given restrictions on greenfield transmission build-out. With $180 billion in system cost savings by 2050, reconductoring presents a cost-effective and time-efficient, yet underutilized, opportunity to accelerate global transmission expansion.
From this week’s government/NGO section
The F-List 2024. The Mad Men Fueling the Madness, Nayantara Dutta, Clean Creatives
The advertizing agencies working with fossil fuel clients remain stuck in the Mad Men era, ignoring the impact of their work for polluters, and its consequences for their reputation and talent. The authors share 1,010 fossil fuel contracts held by 590 advertizing and public relations agencies in 2023-2024. Like every other outdated practice of the ad industry, it is only a matter of time before fossil fuel campaigns come to an end. Mad Men no longer rule Madison Avenue, and climate madness must end. Clean agencies who reject fossil fuel clients are the future.
Fossil Fuel Ad Bans: protecting the public from corporate climate disinformation, Climate Action Against Disinformation
The fossil fuel industry, just like the tobacco industry before them, has spent decades advertising, explicitly to normalize their operations and mislead consumers about the dangers of their product, and even promote polluting products as climate solutions. That is why there is broad public support for an emerging global consensus on banning fossil fuel ads, like tobacco ads. As long as a fossil fuel lifestyle is considered normal, climate policy that focuses on demand reduction will never gain enough support to successfully meet the Paris Agreement goals. Fossil fuel ads are an obstacle to equitable climate action.
174 articles in 64 journals by 967 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
A climate change signal in the tropical Pacific emerges from decadal variability, Jiang et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-52731-6
Dense Water Production in Storfjorden, Svalbard, From a 1-Year Time Series of Observations and a Simple Model: Are Polynyas in a Warming Arctic Exporting Heat to the Deep Ocean?, Vivier et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2024jc020878
Increasing contribution of the atmospheric vertical motion to precipitation in a warming climate, Jun & Rind Rind, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01676-1
Nonstationarity of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation’s Fingerprint on Sea Surface Temperature, Mackay et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl109789
Synchronization of the Recent Decline of East African Long Rains and Northwestern Eurasian Warming, Hagos et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2024jd041033
The retarding effect of glacier degradation on the Earth’s rotation, Wang et al., Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access 10.3389/feart.2024.1390303
Variability of marine heatwaves’ characteristics and assessment of their potential drivers in the Baltic Sea over the last 42 years, Bashiri et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-024-74173-2
Observations of climate change, effects
Changing dynamics of Western European summertime cut-off lows: A case study of the July 2021 flood event, Thompson et al., Atmospheric Science Letters Open Access 10.1002/asl.1260
Effects of climate change on migration in Latin America and Caribbean: a scoping review, Cabieses & Huerta, Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1412285
Models and observations agree on fewer and milder midlatitude cold extremes even over recent decades of rapid Arctic warming, Blackport et al., Science Advances 10.1126/sciadv.adp1346
South America is becoming warmer, drier, and more flammable, Feron et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01654-7
Spring 2024: unprecedented atmospheric heatwaves in Mexico, Cavazos, Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1449710
The 2022 record-high heat waves over southwestern Europe and their underlying mechanism, Kim et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100729
Unprecedented 21st century glacier loss on Mt. Hood, Oregon, USA, Bakken-French et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-18-4517-2024
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
Accuracy of daily extreme air temperatures under natural variations in thermometer screen ventilation, Harrison & Burt, Atmospheric Science Letters Open Access 10.1002/asl.1256
Research on simulation and validation methods of aerosol radiative forcing on the Tibetan Plateau based on satellite and ground-based remote sensing observations over the past 20 years, Wu et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107683
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Arctic Amplification of marine heatwaves under global warming, He et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-52760-1
Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over Western Asia: A regional ensemble from CMIP6, Zareian et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107707
Extreme snowfall variations in the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau under warming climate, Li et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107690
Future changes of socioeconomic exposure to potential landslide hazards over mainland China, Li et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100731
Future projections of Siberian wildfire and aerosol emissions, Nurrohman et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-21-4195-2024
Impacts of forced and internal climate variability on changes in convective environments over the eastern United States, Franke et al., Open Access pdf 10.22541/essoar.167458066.68764316/v1
Storylines of projected summer warming in Iberia using atmospheric circulation, soil moisture and sea surface temperature as drivers of uncertainty, Garrido-Perez et al., Atmospheric Research Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107677
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
AI-empowered next-generation multiscale climate modelling for mitigation and adaptation, Eyring et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-024-01527-w
An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024
Are convection-permitting climate projections reliable for urban planning over Africa? A case study of Johannesburg, Keat et al., Atmospheric Science Letters Open Access 10.1002/asl.1264
Assessing the tropical Atlantic biogeochemical processes in the Norwegian Earth System Model, Koseki et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-21-4149-2024
CMIP6 Models Underestimate ENSO Teleconnections in the Southern Hemisphere, Fang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl110738
Constraining Regional Hydrological Sensitivity Over Tropical Oceans, He et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl109374
To What Extent Does Discounting ‘Hot’ Climate Models Improve the Predictive Skill of Climate Model Ensembles?, McDonnell et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004844
U-Surf: A Global 1 km spatially continuous urban surface property dataset for kilometer-scale urban-resolving Earth system modeling, Cheng et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2024-416
Unveiling the Impact of Cosmic Rays and Solar Activities on Climate through Optimized Boost Algorithms, Polato?lu & Gül, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar 10.1016/j.jastp.2024.106360
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
Bayesian Errors-in-Variables Estimation of Specific Climate Sensitivity, Heslop et al., Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology Open Access 10.1029/2024pa004880
Holocene temperatures follow CO2 in southeastern Alaska, Wilcox & Spötl, The Holocene 10.1177/09596836241285790
Variations in deep-sea methane seepage linked to millennial-scale changes in bottom water temperatures ~ 50–6 ka, NW Svalbard margin, Rasmussen et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-024-72865-3
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
A New Ecosystem Model for Arctic Phytoplankton Phenology From Ice-Covered to Open-Water Periods: Implications for Future Sea Ice Retreat Scenarios, Choi et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl110155
Appendage pigmentation and temperature acclimation correlate with survival during acute heat stress in the upside-down jellyfish, Cassiopea xamachana, Maloney et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.3389/fevo.2024.1409379
Climate change and deer in boreal and temperate regions: From physiology to population dynamics and species distributions, Felton et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17505
Climate risk maps as boundary objects for future forests, Lauser, Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103908
Climatic response of Juniperus monticola Martinez, a multi-century alpine shrub from the high mountains of central Mexico, Vázquez-Selem et al., The Holocene Open Access 10.1177/09596836241286006
Coping with collapse: Functional robustness of coral-reef fish network to simulated cascade extinction, Luza et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17513
Fuel constraints, not fire weather conditions, limit fire behavior in reburned boreal forests, Hayes et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110216
Germination responses to changing rainfall timing reveal potential climate vulnerability in a clade of wildflowers, Worthy et al., Ecology Open Access 10.1002/ecy.4423
Phenology Across Scales: An Intercontinental Analysis of Leaf-Out Dates in Temperate Deciduous Tree Communities, Delpierre et al., Global Ecology and Biogeography Open Access 10.1111/geb.13910
Physiological and biochemical changes of Picea abies (L.) during acute drought stress and their correlation with susceptibility to Ips typographus (L.) and I. duplicatus (Sahlberg), Basile et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2024.1436110
Planted Forests Greened 7% Slower Than Natural Forests in Southern China Over the Past Forty Years, Fan et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl111209
Sloth metabolism may make survival untenable under climate change scenarios, Cliffe et al., PeerJ Open Access 10.7717/peerj.18168
Summer primary production of Arctic kelp communities is more affected by duration than magnitude of simulated marine heatwaves, Miller et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.70183
Tree species abundance changes at the edges of their climatic distribution: An interplay between climate change, plant traits and forest management, Padullés Cubino et al., Journal of Ecology Open Access 10.1111/1365-2745.14419
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
A basin-wide carbon-related proxy dataset in arid China, Li et al., Geoscience Data Journal Open Access 10.1002/gdj3.274
A regression-based approach to the CO2 airborne fraction, Bennedsen et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-52728-1
Comparison of observation- and inventory-based methane emissions for eight large global emitters, Petrescu et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-16-4325-2024
Constraining the trend in the ocean CO2 sink during 2000–2022, Mayot et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-52641-7
Coupled models of water and carbon cycles from leaf to global: A retrospective and a prospective, Wang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110229
Eddy covariance measurements reveal a decreased carbon sequestration strength 2010–2022 in an African semiarid savanna, Wieckowski et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17509
Enhanced global carbon cycle sensitivity to tropical temperature linked to internal climate variability, Li et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adl6155
Inland water greenhouse gas emissions offset the terrestrial carbon sink in the northern cryosphere, Song et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adp0024
Inverse modeling of 2010–2022 satellite observations shows that inundation of the wet tropics drove the 2020–2022 methane surge, Qu et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2402730121
Marine carbon sink dominated by biological pump after temperature overshoot, Koeve et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-024-01541-y
Methane dynamics in the Baltic Sea: investigating concentration, flux, and isotopic composition patterns using the coupled physical–biogeochemical model BALTSEM-CH4 v1.0, Gustafsson et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-7157-2024
Nitrogen deposition contributed to a global increase in nitrous oxide emissions from forest soils, Cen et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01647-6
Quantifying Post-Colonial Peat Carbon Loss From a Drained Forested Peatland, Great Dismal Swamp National Wildlife Refuge, USA, Jones et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2024jg008137
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
Technical note: A validated correction method to quantify organic and inorganic carbon in soils using Rock-Eval® thermal analysis, Stojanova et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-21-4229-2024
The dynamic trajectory of carbon dioxide removal from terrestrial ecosystem restoration: A critical review, Niu et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110244
Verifying national inventory-based combustion emissions of CO2 across the UK and mainland Europe using satellite observations of atmospheric CO and CO2, Scarpelli et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-24-10773-2024
“Pink power”—the importance of coralline algal beds in the oceanic carbon cycle, Schubert et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-52697-5
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
3775-year-old wood burial supports “wood vaulting” as a durable carbon removal method, Zeng et al., Science 10.1126/science.adm8133
Carbon sequestration potential of tree planting in China, Yao et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-52785-6
Geospatial assessment of the cost and energy demand of feedstock grinding for enhanced rock weathering in the coterminous United States, Li et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1380651
Governance of carbon dioxide removal: an AI-enhanced systematic map of the scientific literature, Lück et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1425971
Measuring enhanced weathering: inorganic carbon-based approaches may be required to complement cation-based approaches, Hasemer et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1352825
Synergies of storing hydrogen at the crest of CO2${rm CO}&{2}$ or other gas storage, Zhang et al., Energies Open Access pdf 10.3390/en13153829
Decarbonization
Accelerating transmission capacity expansion by using advanced conductors in existing right-of-way, Chojkiewicz et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2411207121
After the battle: Emergent norms and the silencing of dissent in a Norwegian wind power community, Figari et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103765
Agrivoltaic systems offer symbiotic benefits across the water-energy-food-environment nexus in West Africa: A systematic review, Favi et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103737
Assessing the impact of off-grid solar electricity in protected areas: A capabilities analysis of the Kaimur Wildlife Sanctuary, India, Sharma & Dash, Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103770
Assessment of the ecological and environmental effects of large-scale photovoltaic development in desert areas, Wu et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-024-72860-8
Building blocks of change: The energy, health, and climate co-benefits of more efficient brickmaking in Bangladesh, Brooks et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103738
Eliminating performance loss from perovskite films to solar cells, Luo et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adp0790
Evaluation of photovoltaic installation potential in industrial complexes around metropolitan areas: Regulatory obstacles and geographical considerations, Park et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101564
High-abundance and low-cost anodes for sodium-ion batteries, Dou et al., Carbon Neutralization Open Access 10.1002/cnl2.171
Identifying opportunities and risks from green hydrogen: a framework and insights from a developing region in Brazil, Caiafa et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2024.2407848
Lifecycle social impacts of lithium-ion batteries: Consequences and future research agenda for a safe and just transition, Domingues et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103756
Rules, institutions and policy capacity: A comparative analysis of lithium-based development in Argentina, Bolivia and Chile, Orihuela & Serrano, Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103761
Saved by the snowy owl: An intersectional analysis of indigenous rights and biodiversity in the Kvalsund wind power project in Norway, Mohammed, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103758
Socio-technical challenges and prospects of residential solar PV diffusion in Ghana: Insights from regime and intermediary actors, Akrofi et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103772
Solar transpiration–powered lithium extraction and storage, Song et al., Science 10.1126/science.adm7034
Strategic analysis of metal dependency in the transition to low-carbon energy: A critical examination of nickel, cobalt, lithium, graphite, and copper scarcity using IEA future scenarios, Shannak et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103773
Temporally compounding energy droughts in European electricity systems with hydropower, van der Most et al., Nature Energy Open Access 10.1038/s41560-024-01640-5
Value-sensitive design under ground? Exploring the community-based monitoring of a geothermal project in the Netherlands, Duijn et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103768
What do we know about the effectiveness of local energy plans? A systematic review of the research, Cowell & Webb , Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103767
Geoengineering climate
Change in Wind Renewable Energy Potential Under Stratospheric Aerosol Injections, Baur et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004575
Next steps for assessing ocean iron fertilization for marine carbon dioxide removal, Buesseler et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1430957
Projected changes to Arctic shipping routes after stratospheric aerosol deployment in the ARISE-SAI scenarios, Morrison et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1426679
Black carbon
Intrinsic Organic Carbon Could Contribute to the Unexplained Optical Measurements of Fresh Soot, Luo et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2024jd041457
Microplastic and Associated Black Particles From Road-Tire Wear: Implications for Radiative Effects Across the Cryosphere and in the Atmosphere, Reynolds et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2024jd041116
New top-down estimation of daily mass and number column density of black carbon driven by OMI and AERONET observations, Liu et al., Remote Sensing of Environment 10.1016/j.rse.2024.114436
Aerosols
A machine learning paradigm for necessary observations to reduce uncertainties in aerosol climate forcing, Redemann & Gao Gao, Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-52747-y
Less anthropogenic aerosol indirect effects are a potential cause for Northeast Pacific warm blob events, Yao et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2414614121
Climate change communications & cognition
Compounding disaster: Perceptions of coastal risk, extreme events, and oil and gas energy production in the Gulf of Mexico, Ramenzoni et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103735
Diverging paths, converging goals: Framing crisis to kairos in Bill Gates’s and Greta Thunberg’s climate discourse, Wuebben et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103747
Just a Drop in the Ocean? How Lay Beliefs About the World Influence Efficacy, Perceptions and Intentions Regarding Pro-Environmental Behavior, Jankowski et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2024.102445
Meritocracy and inequality in the climate debate in Edinburgh, Scotland, Hunjan & Gay-Antaki, Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1439980
Taking the car out of the countryside: Understanding opposition to climate policy in rural Finland, Heiskanen et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103741
Understanding ecological grief as a response to climate change-induced loss in Ghana, Boafo & Yeboah, Climate and Development Open Access 10.1080/17565529.2024.2407342
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Determinants of small-scale irrigation adoption in drought-prone areas of northcentral Ethiopia in the context of climate change, Asfaw Eshetu & Mekonen, Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1410527
Determinants of small-scale irrigation adoption in drought-prone areas of northcentral Ethiopia in the context of climate change, Asfaw Eshetu & Mekonen, Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1410527
Inventory of methane and nitrous oxide emissions from freshwater aquaculture in China, Zhang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01699-8
Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024
Predicting fish spawning phenology for adaptive management: Integrating thermal drivers and fishery constraints, Moltó et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106713
Spatial Simulation and Optimization of Cropping Structure Under Climate and Land Use Change Conditions Considering Synergistic Economic Benefits and Carbon Reduction in Crop Growth Processes, Li et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004684
Unveiling Indian farmers’ adoption of climate information services for informed decision-making: a path to agricultural resilience, Ritu & Kaur, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2024.2409774
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
Decadal trends and climatic influences on flash droughts and flash floods in Indian cities, Archana et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102143
Dynamic assessment of the impact of compound dry-hot conditions on global terrestrial water storage, Han et al., Remote Sensing of Environment 10.1016/j.rse.2024.114428
Future Increase in Post-Drought Precipitation With a Stronger Response to Warming, Zhu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl110294
How does greening affect the surface water budget in the Loess Plateau?, Yan et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107692
Climate change economics
Potential economic impacts of carbon tariffs on target countries: a systematic review, Ma & Xu, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2407830
Reducing the cost of capital to finance the energy transition in developing countries, Calcaterra et al., Nature Energy Open Access 10.1038/s41560-024-01606-7
Spatial risk assessment for climate proofing of economic activities: The case of Belluno Province (North-East Italy), Giupponi et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100656
Climate change mitigation public policy research
A comparative analysis of policies and strategies supporting district heating expansion and decarbonisation in Denmark, Sweden, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom – Lessons for slow adopters of district heating, Salite et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103897
A hypergraph model shows the carbon reduction potential of effective space use in housing, Weber et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-52506-z
A perspective on emerging energy policy and economic research agenda for enabling aviation climate action, Dua & Guzman, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103725
An improbable driver of “just transitions”? Union power in the coal heartland of Western Australia‘s energy shift, Goods & Ellem, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103721
Anticipatory climate policy mix pathways: a framework for ex-ante construction and assessment applied to the road transport sector, Edmondson et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2024.2397440
But can it drive to Lapland? A comparison of electric vehicle owners with the general population for identification of attitudes, concerns and barriers related to electric vehicle adoption in Finland, Sandman et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000346
Developing a comprehensive account of embodied emissions within the Canadian construction sector, Wambersie & Ouellet?Plamondon, Journal of Industrial Ecology Open Access 10.1111/jiec.13548
Doomed in the agrivoltaic campaign? The case of Chinese smallholder agriculture in the deployment of agrivoltaic projects, Hu, Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101562
Energy democracy: Reclaiming a unique agenda in energy transitions research, Wyse & Das, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103774
Energy-Sharing Economy with Renewable Integration and Management in Communities—a State-of-the-Art Review, Zhou, Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research Open Access 10.1002/aesr.202400214
Envisioning energy futures through visual images: What would a commons-based energy system look like?, Kostakis et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103771
Flexibility justice: Exploring the relationship between electrical vehicle charging behaviors, demand flexibility and psychological factors, Chen et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103753
Global suitability and spatial overlap of land-based climate mitigation strategies, Beaury et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17515
Going green, growing strong: how climate policy boosts US companies performance, Ramzan & Ali, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2407832
Green hydrogen transitions deepen socioecological risks and extractivist patterns: evidence from 28 prospective exporting countries in the Global South, Tunn et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103731
Harboring change: Exploring the multifaceted and complex determinants of decarbonizing ports, Alamoush, Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103751
How demand-side mitigation can help shape effective climate policies, Zhu & Liu, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02148-2
How do multidimensional energy justices work?: Specifying the role of anthropocentric and ecological justice in the acceptance of solar energy, Jeon et al., Risk Analysis Open Access 10.1111/risa.17650
Identifying Robust Decarbonization Pathways for the Western U.S. Electric Power System Under Deep Climate Uncertainty, Sundar et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004769
Is ‘eliminating’ remote diesel-generation just? Inuit energy, power, and resistance in off-grid communities of NunatuKavut, Mercer et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103739
Issue linkage and climate votes in the U.S. House of Representatives, 2007–2020, Morton et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000440
Managing the decline of coal in a decarbonizing China, Davidson, WIREs Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.918
Mitigation of climate change. Risk and uncertainty research gaps in the specification of mitigation actions, Cardenas, Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103912
Pride of ownership: Local views on community-owned wind energy development in M’Chigeeng First Nation, Canada, Mang-Benza et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103722
Quantification and sensitivity assessment of Chinese provincial ecological compensation in the perspective of carbon deficit redistribution, Yan et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-024-73868-w
Renewable energy communities: Democratically legitimate agents in governing the energy transition?, Jochemsen et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103732
Role of street-level policy entrepreneurs in sustainability transition: Evidence from India’s transition to LED lighting, Sharma, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103745
Spatial distributive justice has many faces: The case of siting renewable energy infrastructures, Lehmann et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103769
The barriers, determinants, and willingness-to-pay in electric motorcycle conversion (EMC) adoption, Rizki et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114361
The dynamic spatial effects of education investment on carbon emissions: heterogeneous analysis based on north-south differences in China, Dong et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1432457
The net zero wave: identifying patterns in the uptake and robustness of national and corporate net zero targets 2015–2023, Green et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2405221
The political logic of just transition policies, Aklin, Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2024.2378995
US industrial policy may reduce electric vehicle battery supply chain vulnerabilities and influence technology choice, Cheng et al., Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-024-01649-w
Using cost–benefit analyses to identify key opportunities in demand-side mitigation, Tan-Soo et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02146-4
“Farming the sun” or “coal legacy”? Social perspectives on solar energy projects in Appalachia, Bertol, PAJ: A Journal of Performance and Art Open Access 10.1162/pajj_a_00242
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Adaptation constraints, limits and enabling conditions in small island developing states, Thomas & Theokritoff, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 10.1016/j.cosust.2024.101488
Analyzing the effects of extreme cold waves on urban water supply network safety: A case study from 2020 to 2021, Hu et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102146
Climate change adaptation in the Australian electricity sector and the lure of resilience thinking, Adams & Prakash, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103755
Critical review of current understanding of passive façade design in residential buildings, Lee & Ng, Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access 10.1088/2634-4505/ad78fc
The climate-energy nexus: a critical review of power grid components, extreme weather, and adaptation measures, Garland et al., Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access 10.1088/2634-4505/ad79dd
Urban water infrastructure: A critical review on climate change impacts and adaptation strategies, Ferdowsi et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102132
Climate change impacts on human health
A demand-driven climate services for health implementation framework: A case study for climate-sensitive diseases in Caribbean Small Island Developing States, Díaz et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000282
Methodological Approaches for Measuring the Association Between Heat Exposure and Health Outcomes: A Comprehensive Global Scoping Review, Graffy et al., GeoHealth Open Access 10.1029/2024gh001071
Temperature-Driven Dengue Transmission in a Changing Climate: Patterns, Trends, and Future Projections, Feng et al., GeoHealth Open Access 10.1029/2024gh001059
Climate change & geopolitics
“We rather not connect trade to politics, let alone geopolitics” – The changing role of Russia as a landscape pressure for zero-carbon energy transitions, Kivimaa & Sivonen, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103775
Climate change impacts on human culture
Hajj pilgrims suffer from climate extremes, Haghani, Science 10.1126/science.adr2696
Other
The Evolution of the Hunga Hydration in a Moistening Stratosphere, Millán et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl110841
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Coral reef protection is fundamental to human rights, Camp et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17512
Diversity in IPCC author’s composition does not equate to inclusion, Caretta & Maharaj, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02150-8
Doomsday delayed at vulnerable Antarctic glacier, Voosen, Science 10.1126/science.adt3868
Major step up in carbon capture and storage needed to keep warming below 2 °C, , Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02112-0
Re-thinking human interactions with the oceans, Depledge, Royal Society Open Science Open Access 10.1098/rsos.240808
Risks of competing discourses of scientific responsibility in global ocean futures, Lawless et al., npj Ocean Sustainability Open Access 10.1038/s44183-024-00086-2
Transdisciplinary Research Supports the Sustainability of Barrier Island Systems Threatened by Climate Change, Barnard & Passeri, Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004854
What are we aiming for? Addressing the knowledge gap of a long-term sustainable society, Higgs, Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103895
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
How the Finance Flows: Corporate Capture of Public Finance, Teresa Anderson and Paula Castro, ActionAid International
The authors find that climate-destructive sectors are benefiting from subsidies amounting to an average of US$677 billion in the Global South every year, money that could pay for schooling for all sub-Saharan African children 3.5 times over. Climate finance grants from the Global North for climate-hit countries are still grossly insufficient to support climate action and the necessary transitions. Climate finance grants amount to just 1/20th of the Global South public finance going to fossil fuels and industrial agriculture. As a result, Global South renewable energy is receiving 40 times less public finance than the fossil fuel sector.
The F-List 2024. The Mad Men Fueling the Madness, Nayantara Dutta, Clean Creatives
The advertizing agencies working with fossil fuel clients remain stuck in the Mad Men era, ignoring the impact of their work for polluters, and its consequences for their reputation and talent. The authors share 1,010 fossil fuel contracts held by 590 advertizing and public relations agencies in 2023-2024. Like every other outdated practice of the ad industry, it is only a matter of time before fossil fuel campaigns come to an end. Mad Men no longer rule Madison Avenue, and climate madness must end. Clean agencies who reject fossil fuel clients are the future.
Climate change and high exposure increased costs and disruption to lives and livelihoods from flooding associated with exceptionally heavy rainfall in Central Europe, Kimutai et al., World Weather Attribution
In mid-September 2024 a very large region in Central Europe, including Poland, Czechia, Austria, Romania, Hungary, Germany, and Slovakia experienced very heavy rainfall, breaking local and national rainfall records over four days. To assess if human-induced climate change influenced the heavy rainfall, the authors first determine if there is a trend in the observations. When looking at the regional scale described above, heavy four-day rainfall events have become about twice as likely and 20% more intense since the pre-industrial era. The estimates become more uncertain when looking at more local scales, and are limited in places in some of the observed data.
Navigating regenerative agriculture in corporate climate strategies. From key emission reduction measure to greenwashing strategy, Fraser et al., NewClimate Institute
Studies have identified that regenerative agriculture plays a prominent role in the transition plans of some of the largest food companies. There are early signs that it is being misused by large companies and that its meaning is being diluted, leaving out key principles and practices such as climate justice and reducing chemical inputs. The authors build on these warnings. They take a deeper look at the framing and planned use of regenerative agriculture by the 30 largest multinational food and agriculture companies, especially about its role in reaching corporate GHG emission reduction targets. The authors investigate if a common definition of regenerative agriculture has solidified if companies are setting quantitative targets, and if companies intend to use regenerative agriculture for emission reductions, removals, or both. After taking stock of the use of regenerative agriculture in corporate sustainability and climate strategies, the authors underscore what this could mean for climate mitigation in the food and agriculture sector more broadly.
Climate Change Indicators in the United States, US. Environmental Protection Agency
The authors document how climate change is impacting the United States today, the significance of these changes, and their possible consequences for people, the environment, and society. The authors group indicators into eight themes that help to show interconnections, cause-and-effect relationships, and how physical changes in the atmosphere affect people and the environment. Indicators related to human health and societal impacts of climate change cut across chapter themes and are integrated throughout the report. Each theme includes information on why the changes matter, as well as examples and discussion of the unequal impacts of climate change. The report provides examples of what people and communities can do to address climate change, and what actions are already underway
Winning on Climate and Energy Issues: Poll Findings among Black Voters in the Battleground States, HIT Strategies, HIT Strategies and Clean Power
In early September 2024, 1,000 Black registered voters were surveyed across Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Black voters under 50, especially Black voters 18-34 and Black men 18-49 are more likely to be “third-party curious” or undecided — they want to elect a president who will have a clear plan for climate and create clean energy jobs and investments. Clean energy and climate change are strengths for Harris in the upcoming 2024 election with 80%+ Black voters trusting her on this issue. Many voters, especially young voters, are prioritizing climate and clean energy as an important issue in their 2024 vote decisions. Black voters in battleground states are motivated by Kamala Harris’ vision for the future on climate and clean energy, especially when it makes clear she will fight for Black communities and future generations. Voters are also motivated by messaging on job creation in the clean energy industry and how clean energy will help lower energy costs for Americans.
Fossil Fuel Ad Bans: protecting the public from corporate climate disinformation, Climate Action Against Disinformation
The fossil fuel industry, just like the tobacco industry before them, has spent decades advertising, explicitly to normalize their operations and mislead consumers about the dangers of their product, and even promote polluting products as climate solutions. That is why there is broad public support for an emerging global consensus on banning fossil fuel ads, like tobacco ads. As long as a fossil fuel lifestyle is considered normal, climate policy that focuses on demand reduction will never gain enough support to successfully meet the Paris Agreement goals. Fossil fuel ads are an obstacle to equitable climate action.
Ukraine: Reframing the Narrative of Climate, Environmental Degradation and Conflict, Clément Iraola, International Rescue Committee
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, the war in Ukraine has been in the spotlight, largely due to its dire human toll and geopolitical implications. To date, the environmental and climate impacts of the war have received limited attention, particularly about humanitarian needs. In just the first 12 months, the war triggered an estimated net increase of 120 million tonnes of greenhouse gases and caused environmental damage exceeding USD 57 billion. Two years on, this figure reached 175 million tonnes—surpassing the annual emissions of highly industrialized countries like the Netherlands. Furthermore, this amount equals the cumulative carbon emissions of five countries classified as Fragile and Conflict-Affected States (FCAS) on the International Rescue Committee’s (IRC) Emergency Watchlist: Haiti, Syria, Burkina Faso, Yemen, and Somalia (EDGAR, 2023). The extent to which the war in Ukraine exacerbates the vulnerability of the conflict-affected population to environmental and climatic changes is still not fully understood, creating a gap that hinders timely, climate-security risk-informed humanitarian and post-conflict responses.
Don’t Look Up. Shifting Climate Beliefs, Thulin et al., Center for Behavior and Environment
This study was designed to estimate the impact of Don’t Look Up (DLU) and a video from the film’s marketing campaign, intended to amplify the climate message, on a series of key climate mental states. Those who naturally watched DLU had a largely favorable impression and the film made them feel surprised and motivated over other emotions. Natural DLU viewers showed higher levels of climate mental states than non-viewers, but also differed on demographics and psychographics. This means that the observed differences in climate mental states may not be due to the film.
Urban Pulse: Identifying Resilience Solutions at the Intersection of Climate, Health and Equity, Ickovics et al., Yale School of Public Health and R-Cities
The authors provide their comprehensive insights on climate and health priorities, challenges, and solutions from a global mixed-methods study. The study was composed of a survey completed by 191 respondents in 118 cities in 52 countries, along with eight in-depth interviews with stakeholders from Africa (Addis Ababa, Cape Town, Lagos), Asia (Semarang, Surat), and Latin America (Buenos Aires, Montevideo, Porto Alegre). Respondents included leaders in city governments and civil society, including community-based, non-profit, and private-sector organizations. Two in three cities identify extreme heat, flooding, and air pollution as “high concern”. 68.8% of cities are worried about rising climate-sensitive infectious diseases. Critical municipal systems like water, waste, and public health infrastructure are insufficient, leaving populations vulnerable. Cities are highly concerned about the climate impacts on vulnerable groups, including the elderly (78.9%), children (77.8%), informal settlers (65.4%), outdoor workers (57.1%), and migrants (43.0%), with children being a priority.
Why Wind and Solar Need Natural Gas: A Realistic Approach to Variability, Robin Gaster, Information Technology and Innovation Foundation
Wind and solar power will replace consistently dispatchable electricity from fossil fuels with variable and more unpredictable clean energy. Seasonal shifts and annual variations cannot be handled with batteries or other proposed storage solutions like hydrogen. Natural gas will have to bridge the gap for many decades. Solar and wind are growing fast and rapidly displacing coal on the grid. But they are inherently more variable sources of energy; as the grid becomes more dependent on them, it will become potentially less reliable. Seasonal storage technologies such as hydrogen, pumped hydro, and compressed air are not realistic alternatives. More nuclear power could reduce the scale but not solve the problem. Only natural gas can guarantee reliability during the green transition. Regulators must help gas transition from always-on baseload power to usually off-capacity insurance. Existing combined-cycle plants and single-cycle peaker plants can do that if they are operated (and funded) to do so.
Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions
We know it’s frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as “On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light” but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article’s relevance and importance.
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How is New Research assembled?
Most articles appearing here are found via RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance.
Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database.
The objective of New Research isn’t to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers’ impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:
- Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a “yes” to this automatically.
- Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week’s 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.
A few journals offer public access to “preprint” versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we’ll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as “preprint.”
The section “Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives” includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of “perspectives,” observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.
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