Skeptical Science New Research for Week #37 2024
Posted on 12 September 2024 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Early knowledge but delays in climate actions: An ecocide case against both transnational oil corporations and national governments, Hauser et al., Environmental Science & Policy:
Cast within the wide context of investigating the collusion at play between powerful political-economic actors and decision-makers as monopolists and debates about ‘the modern corporation and private property’ (Berle and Means, 1932/2017), ‘the new industrial state’ (Galbraith, 1967), and ‘the economic theory of regulation’ (Stigler, 1971), the paper reviews the contentious relationship between states, corporations, and markets. Specifically, the article probes strategies of oil corporations and national governments intended to delay the inclusion of environmental concerns in policies and avoid accountability. Our method of content analysis of articles, reports, and international declarations of different actors and periods relies on a qualitative methodology and ontology of critical realism. We find that not only did oil corporations hide the truth, but also that national governments, that knew (or should have known) about the threat posed by oil industrial activities and which have wider responsibilities than corporations, did not act and are (at least) as responsible and as ‘ecocidal’ in what could be called an oil TNC-state alliance.
Fossil fuel industry influence in higher education: A review and a research agenda, Hiltner et al., WIREs Climate Change:
The evolution of fossil fuel industry tactics for obstructing climate action, from outright denial of climate change to more subtle techniques of delay, is under growing scrutiny. One key site of ongoing climate obstructionism identified by researchers, journalists, and advocates is higher education. Scholars have exhaustively documented how industry-sponsored academic research tends to bias scholarship in favor of tobacco, pharmaceutical, food, sugar, lead, and other industries, but the contemporary influence of fossil fuel interests on higher education has received relatively little academic attention. We report the first literature review of academic and civil society investigations into fossil fuel industry ties to higher education in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia. We find that universities are an established yet under-researched vehicle of climate obstruction by the fossil fuel industry, and that universities’ lack of transparency about their partnerships with this industry poses a challenge to empirical research. We propose a research agenda of topical and methodological directions for future analyses of the prevalence and consequences of fossil fuel industry–university partnerships, and responses to them.
Who are the green transition experts? Towards a new research agenda on climate change knowledge, Frandsen & Hasselbalch, WIREs Climate Change:
Experts play a significant role in shaping global and local norms on how societies should respond to the climate crisis. However, current scholarship on the relationship between expertise and climate change has not fully addressed recent transformations in the field, specifically the emergence and increasingly influential role of what we term “green transition expertise.” We define green transition expertise as a more applied, normative, and contextual form of climate change knowledge that is contrasted with the formalized, pure science of “climate expertise.” If climate experts assess the deteriorating state of the global climate, then transition experts tell states and corporations what they should do about it. We argue that if the social science of climate change knowledge is to further deepen its grasp of the politics of the green transition analytically and normatively, it must embrace a “post-IPCC” research agenda that turns increasingly toward studying the power of transition experts in directing state and corporate climate action. Based on a review of the literature, we contrast the extant IPCC agenda with an emerging post-IPCC agenda along three dimensions: expert cast (who are the experts?), expert content (what do they know?) and expert context (where are they located?).
Tackling the academic air travel dependency. An analysis of the (in)consistency between academics’ travel behaviour and their attitudes, De Vos et al., Global Environmental Change:
While the unsustainability of aviation is well-recognised in academia, academics themselves are often frequent flyers – generating the emissions many of them also problematise. To investigate this contradiction, we survey 1,116 staff members from University College London (UK). We cluster academics based on their opinions of academic travel and international conference organisation, and examine how these groups participate in, and travel to, academic activities. Five clusters are identified: 1) Conservative frequent flyers, 2) Progressive infrequent flyers, 3) In-person conference avoiders, 4) Involuntary flyers, and 5) Traditional conference lovers. Despite some levels of similarity between academic travel attitudes and behaviour, results show that certain types of academics seem forced to regularly fly to distant conferences. In fact, members of our largest cluster (Involuntary flyers) have negative attitudes towards flying, yet have the plane as dominant travel mode. To reduce academic air travel (dependency), we provide tailored policy instruments for each cluster, aimed at reducing the need to travel to lowering the impact of travel.
What is a heat wave: A survey and literature synthesis of heat wave definitions across the United States, Bunting et al., PLOS Climate:
Heat waves are the last extreme weather events without a formal, on the books, definition. Instead, across the U.S. those working on extreme heat event management, forecasting, and planning are using differing definitions in their work. With such differing definitions being used there are widespread impacts including some to human and environmental health, natural resource management, and long-term emergency management planning. For instance, when should heat advisories for vulnerable populations be released when an event impacts a region using multiple definitions? There are concrete and justifiable reasons for the lack of a formal heat wave definition including, at its simplest, differences in what temperature is extreme enough, compared to the region’s climatological regimens, to be deemed as an extreme heat event or heat wave. This study looks for patterns and commonalities in emergency managers and climatologists, those most commonly addressing or planning for such events, definition of heat wave events through a review of the literature and widespread survey across the United States. Through a short 11-questions survey and subsequent text mining, we find widespread variability in the common heat wave definitions but a consistent pattern of core key term usage including aspects of heat duration, extreme temperature, and humidity. However, we also see little to no usage of non-climatological variables such as exposure, vulnerability, population, and land cover/land use.
Readiness for a clean energy future: Prevalence, perceptions, and barriers to adoption of electric stoves and solar panels in New York city, Lane et al., Energy Policy:
Adoption of electric stoves and rooftop solar can reduce fossil-fuel reliance and improve health by decreasing indoor air pollution and alleviating energy insecurity. This study assessed prevalence and perceptions of these clean-energy technologies to increase adoption in New York City (NYC). A representative survey of 1950 NYC adults was conducted from February 28 to April 1, 2022. Fourteen percent of people had an electric stove; 86% had gas stoves. Black, Latino/a, and lower-income residents were more likely to have electric stoves than White and higher-income residents. Only 14% of residents were interested in switching from gas to electric stoves. Of the 71% with gas stoves uninterested in switching, nearly half (45%) preferred gas cooking, particularly among White and higher-income residents, indicating a large opportunity to shift preferences. About 5% used solar for their home or building; another 77% were interested in solar. Of the 18% uninterested in solar, reasons included lack of agency, confusion about operation, and costs.
From this week’s government and NGO section:
Choosing Our Future: Education for Climate Action, Sabarwal et al., World Bank Group
Education is a key asset for climate action. Education reshapes behaviors, develops skills, and spurs innovation—everything we need to combat the greatest crisis facing humanity. Better educated people are more resilient and adaptable, better equipped to create and work in green jobs, and critical to driving solutions. Yet, education is massively overlooked in the climate agenda. Almost no climate finance goes to education. Channeling more climate funding to education could significantly boost climate change mitigation and adaptation. The economic losses and human cost of climate change are enormous. Despite this, climate action remains slow due to information gaps, skills gaps, and knowledge gaps. Education is the key to addressing these gaps and driving climate action around the world. Indeed, education is the greatest predicator of climate-friendly behavior.
Michigan’s Clean Energy Economic Comeback: How Local Economies in Michigan Are Benefitting from State and Federal Climate Policies, 5 Lakes Energy, Evergreen Collaborative
Overall, the authors found that the combined effects of federal and state climate policies in Michigan is projected to reduce energy costs across the whole economy, including lowering Michigan families’ energy bills by an average of $297 per year by 2030 and $713 per year by 2040, relative to the baseline expected energy cost if federal and state climate policies were not in place; bring the state $15.6 billion in Inflation Reduction Act investments cumulatively by 2030 and $30.7 billion cumulatively by 2040 broken down by prosperity region in the report; reduce Michigan’s greenhouse gas emissions from the electric power sector by at least 65% by 2030 and 88% by 2040l and save Michigan $7.3 billion by 2030 in avoided public health costs (deaths, hospitalizations, lost school & work days, and more) and $27.8 billion cumulatively by 2040.
135 articles in 55 journals by 872 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Antarctic meltwater reduces the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation through oceanic freshwater transport and atmospheric teleconnections, An et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01670-7
Boreal Forest Fire Causes Daytime Surface Warming During Summer to Exceed Surface Cooling During Winter in North America, Helbig et al., AGU Advances Open Access 10.1029/2024av001327
Deoxygenation and Its Drivers Analyzed in Steady State for Perpetually Slower and Warmer Oceans, Pasquier et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2024jc021043
North Atlantic temperature control on deoxygenation in the northern tropical Pacific, Pichevin et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-52197-6
Sensitivity of western Pacific subtropical high to regional sea surface temperature changes, Zhou et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104565
Transient overturning changes cause an upper-ocean nutrient decline in a warming climate, Sun et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-52200-0
Underestimation of calcium carbonate saturation state in marginal seas due to the disregard of calcium ion addition: A case study of the Bohai sea, China, Wei et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106688
Understanding the trends in reflected solar radiation: a latitude- and month-based perspective, Li et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-24-9777-2024
Observations of climate change, effects
A 70-year record reveals the poleward shift of tropical cyclone tracks in the east China coastal ocean is twice that of landward shift, Xu et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104566
Centennial-Scale Intensification of Wet and Dry Extremes in North America, Sung et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2023gl107400
Cyclone Gabrielle as a Design Storm for Northeastern Aotearoa New Zealand Under Anthropogenic Warming, Stone et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004772
Elevation-dependent warming and possible-driving mechanisms over global highlands, Abbas et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8572
Increased Frequency but Decreased Intensity of Marine Heatwaves Around Coral Reef Regions in the Southern South China Sea, Lyu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2024jc021235
Indian Ocean Acidification and Its Driving Mechanisms Over the Last Four Decades (1980–2019), Chakraborty et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles 10.1029/2024gb008139
Precursors of summer heat waves in the Eastern Mediterranean, Garfinkel et al., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Open Access 10.1002/qj.4795
Spatiotemporal variability and underlying large-scale atmospheric mechanisms causing the change in the Black Sea surface temperature and associated extreme precipitation events in the northeastern of Turkiye, Baltaci & Turk, International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.8568
Trend and interannual variability of summer marine heatwaves in the tropical Indian ocean: Patterns, mixed layer heat budget, and seasonal prediction, Wang et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100680
Will the 2022 compound heatwave–drought extreme over the Yangtze River Basin become Grey Rhino in the future?, Feng et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.05.004
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
Influence of deep stratosphere-to-troposphere transport on atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane at the Mt. Cimone WMO/GAW global station (2165 m a.s.l., Italy): A multi-year (2015–2022) investigation, Trisolino et al., Atmospheric Research Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107627
What is a heat wave: A survey and literature synthesis of heat wave definitions across the United States, Bunting et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000468
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Atmospheric cloud-radiative heating in CMIP6 and observations and its response to surface warming, Voigt et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-24-9749-2024
Changing circulations challenge the sustainability of cold water mass and associated ecosystem under climate change, Yang et al., npj Ocean Sustainability Open Access 10.1038/s44183-024-00077-3
Dry-air intrusion over India during break phases of the Indian summer monsoon in CMIP6 models, Singh & Sandeep, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 10.1002/qj.4788
Projected changes in monsoonal compound dry-hot extremes in India, Kumar & Goyal, Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107605
Strong regional trends in extreme weather over the next two decades under high- and low-emissions pathways, Iles et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-024-01511-4
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
A Global Sensitivity Analysis of Parameter Uncertainty in the CLASSIC Model, S. N. et al., Atmosphere Open Access 10.1080/07055900.2024.2396426
An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024
Artificial intelligence for climate prediction of extremes: State of the art, challenges, and future perspectives, Materia et al., WIREs Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.914
Performance Evaluation of CMIP6 Models in Simulating the Dynamic Processes of Arctic-Tropical Climate Connection During Winter, Sun et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2024jd041328
The performance of the CoMorph-A convection package in global simulations with the Met Office Unified Model, Lock et al., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 10.1002/qj.4781
Cryosphere & climate change
Changes in the spatiotemporal distribution of the timing and duration of the soil freeze–thaw status from 1979 to 2018 over the Tibetan Plateau, Lai et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8617
Evaluation of the energy budget of thermokarst lake in permafrost regions of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, Gao et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.06.009
Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Over the Next Three Centuries From an ISMIP6 Model Ensemble, Seroussi et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004561
Hydrological response of Andean catchments to recent glacier mass loss, Caro et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2023-888
Hysteresis of idealized, instability-prone outlet glaciers in response to pinning-point buttressing variation, Feldmann et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-18-4011-2024
Widespread and Rapid Activities of Retrogressive Thaw Slumps on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau From 2016 to 2022, Xia et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl109616
Winter arctic sea ice volume decline: uncertainties reduced using passive microwave-based sea ice thickness, Soriot et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-024-70136-9
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
Antarctic Tipping points triggered by the mid-Pliocene warm climate, Blasco et al., Climate of the Past Open Access 10.5194/cp-20-1919-2024
Opposing Changes in Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Variability Produced by Orbital and Anthropogenic Forcing, He et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl109897
The North Atlantic subpolar ocean dynamics during the past 21,000 years, Mandal et al., Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2024.101462
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
20th century climate warming and human disturbance triggered high aquatic production and strong water-column mixing in maar Lake Xiaolongwan, northeastern China, Tu et al., Anthropocene 10.1016/j.ancene.2024.100442
An unusual winter bloom of dinoflagellates with notable damage to kelp cultivation around Shandong peninsula, China, Geng et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106687
Divergent Responses of Fir and Pine Trees to Increasing CO2 Levels in the Face of Climate Change, Correa?Díaz et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2023jg007754
Global assessment of climatic responses to ozone–vegetation interactions, Zhou et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-24-9923-2024
Global change and premature hatching of aquatic embryos, Cowan et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17488
Hindcasted Body Temperatures Reveal Underestimated Thermal Stress Faced by Intertidal Species, Ma et al., Global Ecology and Biogeography 10.1111/geb.13908
Local and regional climatic constraints of shrub and tree growth near the treeline, Camarero et al., Dendrochronologia Open Access 10.1016/j.dendro.2024.126256
Otolith reliability is context-dependent for estimating warming and CO2 acidification impacts on fish growth, Tang et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17501
Overview: Global change effects on terrestrial biogeochemistry at the plant–soil interface, Fuchslueger et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-21-3959-2024
Root and biomass allocation traits predict changes in plant species and communities over four decades of global change, Messier et al., Ecology Open Access 10.1002/ecy.4389
Synergistic effects of climate and urbanisation on the diet of a globally near threatened subtropical falcon, Foysal & Panter, Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.70290
Temperature influences immune cell development and body length in purple sea urchin larvae, Wilkins et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106705
Temperature-dependent responses and trophic interaction strengths of a predatory marine gastropod and rock oyster under ocean warming, Tsang et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106675
The devil is in the details: Experiment reveals how a forest-dwelling scavenger, and their excrement, may buffer ecosystem processes from climate change, Stokely, Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17499
Water restriction alters seed bank traits and ecology in Atlantic Forest seasonal forests under climate change, Dias et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17494
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
An ensemble assessment to improve estimates of land-to-ocean carbon fluxes, , Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-024-01526-x
Antarctic krill sequester similar amounts of carbon to key coastal blue carbon habitats, Cavan et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-52135-6
Blue carbon storage in a sub-Antarctic marine protected area, Bergagna et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-024-71319-0
Changes in plant litter and root carbon inputs alter soil respiration in three different forests of a climate transitional region, Feng et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110212
Constructing a measurement-based spatially explicit inventory of US oil and gas methane emissions (2021), Omara et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-16-3973-2024
Decoding drivers of carbon flux attenuation in the oceanic biological pump, Bressac et al., Nature Open Access 10.1038/s41586-024-07850-x
Drivers of decadal trends in the ocean carbon sink in the past, present, and future in Earth system models, Terhaar, Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-21-3903-2024
Elevating water table reduces net ecosystem carbon losses from global drained wetlands, Liu et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17495
Global riverine land-to-ocean carbon export constrained by observations and multi-model assessment, Liu et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-024-01524-z
Global Wetland Methane Emissions From 2001 to 2020: Magnitude, Dynamics and Controls, Xiao et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004794
High-resolution mapping of carbon dioxide emissions in Guizhou Province and its scale effects, Zeng et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-024-71836-y
Implications of energy balance non-closure on carbon dioxide flux uncertainties: Insights from large eddy simulations in convective boundary layers, Zhou et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110211
Methane fluxes in tidal marshes of the conterminous United States, Arias?Ortiz et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17462
Off-Shelf Transport and Biogeochemical Cycling of Terrestrial Organic Carbon Along the East Siberian Continental Margin, Martens et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access 10.1029/2024gb008104
Positive soil priming effects are the rule at a global scale, Xu et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17502
Reply to Jautzy et al.: Considerations on methane equilibrium—do not forget to add the pepper, Chowdhury et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2410194121
Sea surface carbon dioxide during early summer at the Tuandao nearshore time series site, Cao et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106699
Space-based observations of tropospheric ethane map emissions from fossil fuel extraction, Brewer et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-52247-z
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
Temperature controls the relation between soil organic carbon and microbial carbon use efficiency, Luo et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17492
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
Carbon removal and the empirics of climate delay, Markusson et al., Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103884
Enhancing electrochemical carbon dioxide capture with supercapacitors, Xu et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-52219-3
Synergies of storing hydrogen at the crest of CO2${rm CO}&{2}$ or other gas storage, Zhang et al., Energies Open Access pdf 10.3390/en13153829
Decarbonization
Development of low-carbon technologies in China’s integrated hydrogen supply and power system, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.07.012
Empirical field evaluation of self-consumption promoting regulation of household battery energy storage systems, Semmelmann et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114343
Hydrogen storage with gravel and pipes in lakes and reservoirs, Hunt et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-52237-1
Permeability partitioning through the brittle-to-ductile transition and its implications for supercritical geothermal reservoirs, Meyer et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-52092-0
Readiness for a clean energy future: Prevalence, perceptions, and barriers to adoption of electric stoves and solar panels in New York city, Lane et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114301
Techno-economic and sensitivity analysis of floating photovoltaics for river island communities in Bangladesh, Zhou et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101539
Aerosols
Surface albedo regulates aerosol direct climate effect, Chen et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-52255-z
Climate change communications & cognition
Climate action or delay: the dynamics of competing narratives in the UK political sphere and the influence of climate protest, Bauman, Sustainability and Climate Change Open Access 10.1089/scc.2022.0060
Our Future Stories: Approaches to Collective Storytelling for Climate Futures and Action Through an Integrative Review, Roig, Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2024.2393776
Tackling the academic air travel dependency. An analysis of the (in)consistency between academics’ travel behaviour and their attitudes, De Vos et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102908
What is a heat wave: A survey and literature synthesis of heat wave definitions across the United States, Bunting et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000468
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Adaptation to climate change and limits in food production systems: Physics, the chemistry of biology, and human behavior, Nelson et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17489
Climate change exacerbates the environmental impacts of agriculture, Yang et al., Science 10.1126/science.adn3747
Extreme drought and rainfall had a large impact on potato production in the Netherlands between 2015 and 2020, Mulders et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01658-3
How can regional policy help address climate impacts in agriculture? evaluating the climate-smart agriculture strategy for Central America (EASAC), Howland et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2395911
Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024
Synergistic effects of bivalve and microalgae co-cultivation on carbon dynamics and water quality, Liang et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106672
Towards a livelihood-interdependence approach to framing adaptation in research and practice: evidence from farmers’ and herders’ relations in Northern Ghana, Abdulai & Smucker, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2024.2399041
Weather variability and malnutrition among farming households in Ethiopia, Ahmed, Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100640
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
Anthropogenic forcing decreases the probability of the 2020 Yangtze River extreme flood and future risk, Li et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107662
Did recent sea surface temperature warming reinforce the extreme East Asian summer monsoon precipitation in 2020?, Mun et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100682
Evaluation of precipitation extremes in ERA5 reanalysis driven regional climate simulations over the CORDEX-Australasia domain, Ji et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100676
Future Changes of Extreme Precipitation and Related Atmospheric Conditions in East Asia under Global Warming Projected in Large Ensemble Climate Prediction Data, He & Takemi, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0924.1
New insights into trends of rainfall extremes in the Amazon basin through trend-empirical orthogonal function (1981–2021), Cerón et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8561
Short-Duration Extreme Rainfall Events in the Central and Eastern United States During the Summer: 2003–2023 Trends and Variability, Chiappa et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl110424
Variations and future projections of glacial discharge of Urumqi River Headwaters, eastern Tien Shan (1980s–2017), Zhang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.05.001
Variations in Rainfall Structure of Western North Pacific Landfalling Tropical Cyclones in the Warming Climates, Tran et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004808
Climate change economics
Editorial overview: Climate finance, risks, and accounting, Carè et al., Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 10.1016/j.cosust.2024.101473
The role of green financial sector initiatives in the low-carbon transition: A theory of change, Monasterolo et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102915
Climate change mitigation public policy research
A commentary comparing the GHG Protocol and E-liability approaches to corporate GHG accounting and reporting, Ranganathan, Carbon Management Open Access 10.1080/17583004.2024.2397498
Applying the Three Horizons approach in local and regional scenarios to support policy coherence in SDG implementation: Insights from arid Spain, López-Rodríguez et al., Global Environmental Change 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102922
Electric vehicle supply chain under dual-credit and subsidy policies: Technology innovation, infrastructure construction and coordination, Xu et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114339
Energy transition in OECD countries: Catalyzing governance quality for SDG 7 attainment, Sheraz et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114315
From policy to practice: The role of national policy instruments and social barriers in UK energy efficiency adoption in households, Peñasco, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114308
How serious are ethical considerations in energy system decarbonization?, Babatunde et al., Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 10.1016/j.cosust.2024.101477
Identification and analysis of barriers to the implementation of utility-scale solar photovoltaic technology in Ghana, Dokyi & Sharifi, Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101547
Multiple just transitions? A study of how a just transition is envisioned in Poland, Tarasova, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114322
Resistance to market interventionism: an analysis of the European industrial carbon management strategy consultation, Määttä et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2024.2398163
Stakeholder perspectives on border carbon adjustments: Trinidad and Tobago’s balancing act between competitiveness and climate action, Mohan, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2401855
The impact of electricity market reform on renewable energy production, Cheng et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114306
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Automatic assessment of climate risk using satellite imagery: A case study of Jakarta, Yang et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100651
Climate adaptation in Brazil: Advancements and challenges, Chiquetto & Nolasco, Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103888
Commitment, actions, and challenges on locally led climate change adaptation in Nepal, Gentle & Mainaly Mainaly, Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100650
Complicating “community” engagement: Reckoning with an elusive concept in climate-related planned relocation, Bower et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102913
Performance and projections of the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 in simulating precipitation in the Brazilian Amazon and Cerrado biomes, de Mendonça et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8547
Social limits to climate change adaptation: temporalities in behavioural responses to climate risks, Berkhout, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 10.1016/j.cosust.2024.101471
The political economy of the social constraints to adaptation, Jarillo & Barnett , Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability Open Access 10.1016/j.cosust.2024.101475
What is limiting how we imagine climate change adaptation?, Olazabal et al., Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability Open Access 10.1016/j.cosust.2024.101476
Climate change impacts on human health
Spatio-temporal characteristics of Heat stress over Nigeria using evaluated ERA5-HEAT reanalysis data, Morakinyo et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100704
Other
The 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season: An Above-Normal Season despite Strong El Niño Conditions, Klotzbach et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-23-0305.1
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Disaster effects of climate change in High Mountain Asia: State of art and scientific challenges, Wang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.06.003
Early knowledge but delays in climate actions: An ecocide case against both transnational oil corporations and national governments, Hauser et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103880
Fossil fuel industry influence in higher education: A review and a research agenda, Hiltner et al., WIREs Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.904
Knowns and Unknowns in Future Human Pressures on the Ocean, Vargas?Fonseca et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004559
Learning from a climate disaster: The catastrophic floods in southern Brazil, Pillar & Overbeck, Science 10.1126/science.adr8356
Sustainable urban planning needs stronger interdisciplinarity and better co-designing: How ecologists and climatologists can fully leverage climate monitoring data, Audusseau et al., WIREs Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.912
Unsporting climate, , Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02138-4
Who are the green transition experts? Towards a new research agenda on climate change knowledge, Frandsen & Hasselbalch, WIREs Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.917
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
Sector Pathways Review, Climate Change Authority
Every sector of the economy must play its part in Australia’s transition to net zero emissions by 2050. The modelling undertaken for the authority by the CSIRO, Australia’s national science agency, examined several scenarios, two of which are featured in this report. The ‘A50/G2’ scenario is consistent with Australia achieving its current emissions reduction targets—a 43% reduction on the 2005 level by 2030 and net zero by 2050—in a world tracking to a global warming outcome of less than 2°C. The ‘A40/G1.5’ scenario is consistent with greater ambition and more rapid emissions reductions in a world on a trajectory to limiting global warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot, in which Australia reaches net zero by 2040.
Comparative Assessment of the EU and US Policy Frameworks to Promote Low-Carbon Fuels in Aviation and Shipping, Cazzola et al., European Transportation and Energy Research Centre, University of California, Davis Institute of Transportation Studies
Within the transportation sector, battery electric vehicles are widely regarded as the primary tool for addressing the majority of emissions. However, aviation and maritime applications are likely to require fuels for combustion engines for the foreseeable future. The authors examine the actions taken by the United States and the European Union, two regions commonly at the forefront of climate policy, to support the deployment of lower-greenhouse gas fuel options in aviation and marine applications.
Quantifying the Emissions Impacts of The Energy Permitting Reform Act of 2024, Shane Londagin, Third Way
The Energy Permitting Reform Act of 2024 (EPRA) pulls on multiple policy levers to streamline the permitting processes for a variety of energy projects. Assessing the emissions impacts of EPRA requires modeling these levers individually, each with a unique set of assumptions and inputs. An independent analysis of these modeling efforts suggests that, as a whole, the bill results in net emissions reductions.
Choosing Our Future: Education for Climate Action, Sabarwal et al., World Bank Group
Education is a key asset for climate action. Education reshapes behaviors, develops skills, and spurs innovation—everything we need to combat the greatest crisis facing humanity. Better educated people are more resilient and adaptable, better equipped to create and work in green jobs, and critical to driving solutions. Yet, education is massively overlooked in the climate agenda. Almost no climate finance goes to education. Channeling more climate funding to education could significantly boost climate change mitigation and adaptation. The economic losses and human cost of climate change are enormous. Despite this, climate action remains slow due to information gaps, skills gaps, and knowledge gaps. Education is the key to addressing these gaps and driving climate action around the world. Indeed, education is the greatest predicator of climate-friendly behavior.
World Risks Report 2024, Frege et al., Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft
The authors assess the disaster risk for 193 countries. Their report covers all United Nations member states and more than 99% of the world’s population. In 2024, the risk hotspots remain in the Americas and Asia, hosting 8 of the 10 countries with the highest risk scores. Over the long term, however, these hotspots will shift to countries with climate-sensitive exposure and high vulnerability. The top 10 countries with the highest risk have changed only slightly: Mexico and Colombia switch places, with Colombia now having the highest disaster risk in the Americas. China drops out of the group and Pakistan moves up to 10th place.
Michigan’s Clean Energy Economic Comeback: How Local Economies in Michigan Are Benefitting from State and Federal Climate Policies, 5 Lakes Energy, Evergreen Collaborative
Overall, the authors found that the combined effects of federal and state climate policies in Michigan is projected to reduce energy costs across the whole economy, including lowering Michigan families’ energy bills by an average of $297 per year by 2030 and $713 per year by 2040, relative to the baseline expected energy cost if federal and state climate policies were not in place; bring the state $15.6 billion in Inflation Reduction Act investments cumulatively by 2030 and $30.7 billion cumulatively by 2040 broken down by prosperity region in the report; reduce Michigan’s greenhouse gas emissions from the electric power sector by at least 65% by 2030 and 88% by 2040l and save Michigan $7.3 billion by 2030 in avoided public health costs (deaths, hospitalizations, lost school & work days, and more) and $27.8 billion cumulatively by 2040.
Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions
We know it’s frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as “On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light” but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article’s relevance and importance.
- Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate
- The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you’re interested in an article title and it is not listed here as “open access,” be sure to check the link anyway.
How is New Research assembled?
Most articles appearing here are found via RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance.
Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database.
The objective of New Research isn’t to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers’ impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:
- Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a “yes” to this automatically.
- Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week’s 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.
A few journals offer public access to “preprint” versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we’ll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as “preprint.”
The section “Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives” includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of “perspectives,” observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.
Suggestions
Please let us know if you’re aware of an article you think may be of interest for Skeptical Science research news, or if we’ve missed something that may be important. Send your input to Skeptical Science via our contact form.
Journals covered
A list of journals we cover may be found here. We welcome pointers to omissions, new journals etc.
Previous edition
The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here.