For Louise Haigh, the prize for election victory, alongside being chosen to represent the Sheffield Heeley constituency, is to have been appointed as secretary of state for transport. There are few roles in government which so directly affect the day to day lives of citizens which she seems to recognise, having told her department that “growth, net zero, opportunity, women and girls’ safety, health – none of these can be realised without transport as a key enabler”.
The new parliament faces huge challenges but also great opportunities for transformation. Transport is the biggest polluting sector, responsible for around a third of UK emissions. And it is a long way off track to meeting its carbon reduction targets. Our research from March showed, under the previous government, that 37 per cent of the necessary emissions reductions required by 2028-32 are not covered by adequate policy. It is also problematic in other ways as transport is a major contributor to air pollution which is responsible for up to 43,000 deaths a year and there are many communities isolated or trapped in enforced car ownership due to insufficient public transport options.
Important decisions need to be made to get transport moving in the right direction:
1. Don’t make the challenge harder
On Monday, Chancellor Rachel Reeves made a speech in the Treasury which outlined the government’s plan to kickstart economic growth through planning reform. While planning undoubtedly needs to be reformed there are risks to transport decarbonisation, should a ‘build, build, build’ approach be waved through.
Responding to the chancellor’s speech, former think thanker and newly elected Labour MP for Swansea West, Torsten Bell, referred to the Lower Thames Crossing (LTC), which needs a decision by 4 October, as an example of why reform is needed. This proposal is a perfect example of the challenges: there have been years of discussion, £800 million has already been spent and 9,000+ pages of planning documents have been published, and yet the project is still in limbo. A resolution is needed quickly. But the decision should be to scrap the project, at least in its current form. The costs and the environmental impacts are too high, it just doesn’t stack up. The LTC’s own environmental impact report suggests it will lead to 6.6MtCO2e additional emissions and final cost projections have spiraled upwards to £9 billion, with a ‘poor’ direct benefit to cost ratio.
Evidence suggests that new roads tend to lead, in the longer term, to more traffic. Labour has come into government on a platform to build infrastructure that delivers value for money, while bringing us closer to net zero. Big road projects like the LTC pass neither test. Considering the importance of the route for freight, a new rail freight alternative would be more suitable.
Louise Haigh will also be making decisions on airport expansion soon. Luton airport has the same 4 October deadline as the LTC. Before then, the government must decide on an appeal by London City Airport, following rejection of its application to increase terminal capacity by Newham Council. And, by the end of the year, a decision is needed on Gatwick’s expansion plans.
The government’s independent advisers, the Climate Change Committee, argue against any airport expansion until a “capacity management framework is in place” and say it should then only be allowed if emissions are “outperforming” the government’s decarbonisation trajectory. Translation: don’t expand airports any time soon.
Over the next decade, any emission abatement potential offered by sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is likely to be limited and effectively cancelled out by increasing numbers of flights. Until there are major technological breakthroughs to reduce the climate impact of flying, expanding aviation should be off the table.
2. Boost public transport
Already, we have heard that renationalisation of the railways is an immediate priority. This is no surprise having listened to Labour’s narrative over a number of years, as well all of us experiencing the high fare, low quality service common across Britain’s railways. While nationalisation does not automatically guarantee a better service, it gives the government the power to intervene more directly on behalf of passengers.
Public ownership makes building an integrated transport system easier. Labour’s plan to give local leaders the ability to franchise their bus services, and even take them back into municipal ownership, will be crucial. Creating a holistic service gives people without cars better access to local services and jobs and enables those with cars to avoid congestion and unnecessary costs by leaving them at home more often.
A bold offer to signal intent would be to introduce a £1 bus fare cap across England. Our analysis indicates this would help to cut up to 15 billion car miles and increase bus patronage by 70 per cent. It would cost around £2.1 billion over five years but could be paid for by offsetting against unnecessary road building.
3. Be bold and strategic
Ultimately the scale of the climate challenge for transport requires a radical rethink. Emissions from HGVs have barely changed since 1990. Van emissions have actually grown by over 60 per cent over that same period, and the number of flights taken is fast rebounding towards its 2019 peak after Covid. The landmark zero emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate, is driving the uptake of electric vehicles through greater choice and availability. But every area of transport needs a similar clear policy framework guiding decarbonisation. The government has a legal deadline to produce a new Carbon Budget Delivery Plan (CBDP) by May next year. This is an opportunity to set out a long term vision for transport that puts people’s priorities and the environment at its heart.
And we have a few ideas that could help. For example, the government should set a ZEV mandate style regulation for HGVs. It could introduce a consumer guarantee for electric vehicles to support confidence in the private buyers’ market. As mentioned, it should cut bus fares and invest in buses and rail. The absurd loophole which means there is no tax on aviation fuel needs to be closed, with a premium rate for private jet users. A frequent flyer levy should be explored further to embed fairness in ticket pricing, so those who pollute the most pay more. I think
A moratorium on airport expansion, at least until technology catches up, should be part of a refreshed strategy to get aviation on track to meet its climate obligations. Action is needed on shipping, which contributes eight per cent of UK transport emissions, by expanding the UK’s emissions trading scheme. The delayed Clean Maritime Plan should be released and a mandate for green shipping fuels would help to stimulate faster action. Together, these measures could be the basis of a new and effective transport decarbonisation plan.
Tackling transport challenges boldly will pay big dividends. It’s not just about dealing with the threat of climate change, but also about a more equitable system with potential to improve lives quickly, relieving transport poverty and creating healthier environments by cutting air pollution. And these benefits could be felt by people right across the UK. That’s a legacy any government would be proud of.
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